There won't be any 1A/ 1B stuff on this blog. To quote the great Ricky Bobby: "If you're not first, you're last". Obviously they are both very talented. But I will put myself in the position of the team that will be on the clock with both QB's available. For whichever team ends up in that place they won't have the luxury of sitting on the fence, they need to make a choice. It looks like the first potential team that would pull the trigger on a QB would be the Browns at #2, but there is always the possibility of a team trading up with the Titans and leap frogging Hue Jackson in Cleveland.
Lets start our evaluation with the physical measurables:
Carson Wentz was 5' 8" and under 200lbs as a freshman in high school. He didn't start at QB until his senior year because of his undersized frame. Therefore he was not highly recruited, hence his landing spot in North Dakota. Today he is 6'5" and 237lbs. Absolutely a prototype frame for an NFL QB in this millennium.
Cal QB Jared Goff is 6'4" and under 220lbs. Adequate height for a pro baller, but I would prefer a bit more padding on a frame that tall. He weighed in at 215lbs at the combine, which seems to be his realistic weight. I think weight to height ratio is very significant considering the beating an NFL QB will take on a weekly basis. You simply need that natural padding. Another 15- 20lbs of muscle and natural growth over the next 2-3 years is very possible for Goff, so I am not holding it against him too much. But make no mistake, he does need to bulk up.
So we have established their overall frames and body size. Obviously Wentz is the winner in this comparison. There has been chatter about Goff's hand size measuring in at 9 inches. From what I understand 9" and above is acceptable for the NFL. I am not concerned with Goff's hand size and wouldn't factor it into the evaluation.
Next thing on my list is to consider the amount of starts and snaps each QB has had and the level of competition they have faced:
There is really no comparison in this department. Goff has nearly double the amount of starts (37 to Wentzs' 22) and Goff played consistently better competition. This is ultra significant, however Goff did struggle vs. some of his higher level competition. Wentz suffered a broken wrist early in 2015 so he missed a bunch of games. That should have given Goff a big advantage. However,Goff and his teammates had a tough 4 games stretch putting up 4 straight losses, including a 5 INT performance by Jared vs. Utah. This happened while Wentz was out injured. So When Goff had a golden opportunity to solidify his position as the #1 QB in this draft he came up short. All that being said, not only does Wentzs' limited college playing time concern me, but as I mentioned, he also only started only one season in high school.
Next is the all important eye test:
Wentz has the bigger arm. He has one of the most natural throwing motions I have ever seen. Like most rookies these days he has limited experience behind center taking most of his snaps in the pistol or shotgun. But I have to mention his velocity again, it's as good as any QB in the league today. Arm strength isn't just about the long ball, but also the intermediate passes. Passing windows in the NFL are very tiny. Young QB's are always shocked by this fact. There's no way to prepare for it, there is no substitute for real game experience. Having the cannon to be able to compensate for the huge jump in talent and speed Wentz will be facing in the pro's will help his transition.
All we really have to evaluate Wentz is the fact that he looks like as natural a passer as you could ever hope to find. With Goff we can dig a bit deeper considering the larger sample size and the competition he played against. That alone is an advantage for Goff. He didn't always play perfect, but we can break down some film and compare his performance against high profile defenses with that of various other QB's. When Goff is on, he's on. His footwork, anticipation and overall velocity looks above average when he is in rhythm. The problem is he has shown inconsistency with all 3 of those aforementioned attributes through out his larger sample size of film and starts at Cal.
One final thing to mention about the eye test between these two players is their ability to run the ball. This wasn't even a consideration 10 years ago. A QB's 40 time at the combine was usually as important as their eye color. But, it's 2016 and players like Wilson and Newton have changed the game. Both of these rookies are pretty quick, and both are elusive in the pocket. But my eyes tell me that Wentz will make an impact running the ball and Goff won't. Goff reminds me of Aaron Rodgers when it comes to his ability to make plays with his feet. He CAN do it, but it won't be something that makes him a game changer. Carson is not only quick, but he's a big boy. 237lbs coming at you full speed will make most defensive backs think twice. In the redzone Wentz will be able to take advantage of designed QB running plays.
When factoring in the impact Wentz can make with his feet as well as his arm he gets the nod as the winner of the eye test. That's kind of surprised me considering how little film there is on him. I assumed it would be Goff before actually watching them.
Finally we consider the intangibles:
I couldn't find anything that really impacted either of these guys negatively off the field. No scandals, no shoplifting crab legs LOL. An interesting fact that stands out to me is that Wentz emerged as a top prospect in 2014. He was a top national prospect in a very small school. However, he was never selected as a team captain by his teammates. During the scouting combine on NFL Network Mike Mayock said "...when his teammates were asked to elect team leaders his name was never mentioned". That really is a sticking point for me. It's a real snub from the teammates of a guy who was obviously trying to go from North Dakota to the 1st round of the NFL Draft.
On the flip side Goff was a 2 time team captain, as you would expect. But there is more to evaluating intangibles than being elected (or not being chosen) team captain. I also like to watch TV interviews and press conferences. The NFL is an entertainment business first and foremost. A first round drafted NFL QB has to be savvy and confident in front of a microphone from day one. No question Wentz has the advantage here. Goff comes off like a college kid at the podium, and that's a concern if he ends up in a big media market. New York & L.A. are realistic landing spots for either of these QB's. The Rams and Jets need a long term solution at QB. They would both have to trade up to land either one of them, but it's still a possibility. I would have some questions about Goff handling the NY media, especially after a loss.
So I would rank the intangibles category at a tie.
So the final scoring is as follows:
Physical Measuables: Wentz
Starting Experince: Goff
Eye Test: Wentz
Intangibles: Tie
That's 2.5 for Wentz and 1.5 for Goff. Wentz has the edge on Goff when it comes to natural abilities that you simply can't teach... size, speed, arm strength and innate media savvy. It's hard to say which one is a better leader in the locker room. Both of their coaches will do nothing but rave about how great they are because a top 5 drafted player helps their future recruiting abilities as a program. So, Carson Wentz is my choice as the best QB in this years draft. My cards are on the table.
Now for one final observation. Where would be the best possible landing spots for both of these guys?
I think Goff may actually get drafted higher than Wentz even though I feel Wentz is the superior prospect. Sadly NFL teams don't confer with me before they make their picks =( I think that there is a real chance that not only could the Titans trade down, but The Browns and Chargers would also be open to moving down. The Titans and Chargers are obviously not looking for QB's in the 1st round, but the Browns may have interest in a QB who is slated to go later in the draft like Lynch or Hackenberg. They may want to horde some more picks by trading down and passing on both Goff and Wentz.
Before I go too far off the reservation with various trade scenarios, let me say that I think the best landing spot for both of these guys would be Dallas. It's the ideal situation for any rookie QB. You have outstanding offensive coaches, a bunch of weapons to throw to, the best young O-line in the league and a chance to sit and learn for a year or so. It's a formula for long term success. If I had to separate them and pick different teams I'd say Dallas for Goff and The Jets for Wentz. Wentz can handle that NY Media, he has some tremendous weapons of offense and an excellent OC in Chan Gailey. He may even be able to sit behind Fitzpatrick his rookie year, if he resigns in NY. But, even if Fitz is gone in 2016 Wentz would have a chance to succeed with savvy veterans like Decker, Marshall and Forte on his side.
I could see the Browns taking Goff, which I think is a bad landing spot for him because of the lack of talent on the roster. That teams is perpetually "2 years away from being 2 years away" (from being relevant) LOL. The new coaching staff is a plus, but a rookie needs someone to throw the ball to and some protection in the pocket. However, if they are very high on both of these two QB's... or are willing to take Lynch later... I could see them trading with the Cowboys.
That would allow Dallas to take Goff at #2 and create the potential for Wentz to slip back to the Browns at #4. But it would also open a window for the Jets to offer up their #20 overall pick and combine it with Richardson or Wilkerson to convince the Chargers to give up their #3. They could leap frog the Browns (or the Cowboys if they stay put at #4) and land Wentz. If the Chargers stay put and Wentz is still available at #4 the Jets could offer that same package to move up to that spot. The Browns could possibly move down multiple times in the first round.
All that being said, I think the top 5 stays the same and Goff goes to the Browns and Wentz to Dallas. BUT.. if Ezekiel Elliot is available at #4 Dallas could.............. OK I'll stop the speculation there before my head explodes LOL!
-Jay Wagner
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