The Brockweiler, Kaepershnizzle & Oh No Romo...

I wanted to focus on three QB's with three different story lines who have one major thing in common. They are all in pro football limbo. 

Lets start with Collin Kaepernick, the only true free agent of the group. ESPN recently published an article that referred to Kap's current state of unemployment as "curious". This following Spike Lee's tweet storm where he basically said that Kap was being black balled because of his protests last year. Richard Sherman also chimed in claiming that his good buddy Collin was better than at least 20 of the current starters in this league. Here are the facts: He sucks at playing QB. He's a one trick pony. Just like RG III, and other mobile QB's before him, he had a bit of success running a gimmicky option style offense. As time passed teams found out how to shut him down and when he was forced to rely on his arm and reading defenses he became irrelevant.

The stats don't lie… in the past 4 seasons his completion percentage was above 60 only once… and that was only 60.2% in 2015. He also threw 19 picks and had 22 fumbles during that stretch. Honestly, I would probably say he is top 30 in this league (not top 10 like Richard Sherman implied), but most teams aren't clambering to sign the 30th best QB in the NFL who had a significant injury the season before last and who has a public image problem.

Yes, the protests play a small role in him being unemployed. The only 3 teams that have real open competitions at the QB spot are the Browns, Jets and Texans ( I won't count his former team for obvious reasons). The Texans are out of the conversation because the guy who refused to even stand, not to mention salute the red white & blue, would look funny wearing a uniform that is more Patriotic than the team named the Patriots. The Jets were never an option because they are in the biggest media market in the league. The last thing they need is a washed up QB who would bring very little to the field and would light up the back page of the NY Post on a daily basis (Commonly known as the Tebow effect in NYC). I don't think that move would have helped Woody Johnson on his quest to become Trump's newest billionaire political appointee.

As for the Browns.. I think he will probably land there. And that would be his best chance at resurrecting his career. Coach Jackson could potentially help him. So when this is all said and done, this is a non-story drummed up by the media to try and sensationalize anything regarding race. If you are outraged that Kap doesn't have a job right now I ask you to please remember HE opted out of his contract in SF…. he wasn't released. If you think it's a conspiracy I ask you why the fact that Jay Cutler is still unsigned is not making national headlines?

The next QB on the list is the guy who would technically be at the top of the Browns current depth chart… Brock. As I mentioned in a previous post the powers that be in the lone-star state decided to sign a free agent QB to a multi year deal with a bunch of guaranteed money without even meeting with him. Believe it or not they ended up with buyers remorse. So 365 days later they decided to trade Brock and a 2nd round pick to the Browns in exchange for some serious salary cap relief. Cleveland absorbed all of Osweiler's 16 million in guaranteed salary for 2017.

I for one have not given up on Brock. O'Brien has made every QB that has stepped behind his Center look like garbage since he took the reigns as the Texans HC. It's either his system, or his inability to identify the right QB to run it properly. I mean hell, look at the due diligence that was displayed when making the decision to bring Osweiler in last year. LOL!

The more I examine this trade the more I think that Cleveland was the winner. I think they convinced the Texans that they didn't want Brock and that they were intending to execute the trade and then cut him… which helped drive the price up to a 2nd round pick. But now that they have taken Brock off the Texans hands, and got paid with a pretty high draft pick… they don't seem in a rush to move him.

The Browns worse case scenario is that they cut Brock and eat the 16 million. They started free agency with over 100 million to spend. Considering that Cleveland (very predictably) wasn't a hot landing spot for high priced free agents they weren't going to need that 16 million anyway. So when it's all said and done they are left with a 2nd round pick… and gave up nothing but cash in return.

The best case scenario is that Brock actually wins the starting job and starts to excel under the expert tutelage of the Browns HC/ QB whisper himself. So they could end up with a starting QB, which they desperately needed, and a 2nd round pick.

But there are still other scenarios. If they are willing to pay for draft picks, why not approach teams like the Jets or 49ers who have no identity at QB or a team with an aging starter like the Chargers, Patriots or Saints and make an offer that might entice them. How about a late round draft pick in exchange for Osweiler and a deal that would include the Browns agreeing to absorb 80 or 90 percent of the 16 million in 2017. If you could get Brock and it would only cost you 2 million or less against your cap for a 5th or 6th round pick… why not?

The Browns end up with a 2nd and... lets say a fifth rounder in exchange for eating 14 million in dead money this season. Any way this plays out the Browns can't lose. As for the Texans… they had to very publicly admit they messed up big time, they lost a high draft pick trading him away, they now have a gaping hole at QB and there's still the chance Brock goes somewhere else and becomes a solid starter. In every way they are the losers. Their best case scenario is Tony Romo being released. They make a run at him, over pay big time and if they do land him he is on IR before JJ Watt gets his first sack of the season. And they are back where they started.

All this Romo talk brings me to the next QB on my list today… Romo. He's in such a great position. The networks are already lining up to sign him and start his TV career. If he is dying to take one more shot as a starter he waits until he is officially a free agent and then bends the Texans over a barrel and gives them a good rodgering. He can probably get a ton of money out of them. The brass over there are in panic mode.

Another option is that if he really doesn't want to leave Dallas (and is prepared to remain as Dak's back up) he could agree to a pay cut… I'd pay 4 to 6 million for him in that role… especially if I was Jerry Jones. I must admit I have wondered if Jerry has been trying to demonstrate that none of the teams out their really value him that much, considering no one has offered compensation that the Cowboys are willing to accept…. and thats if any team has offered anything at all. Its a great way to show that if none of his potential suitors are willing to put up a high draft pick then you could assume they won't offer much guaranteed money in a contract for 2017. They may also be trying to convince him that he could be embarrassed if he does hit the open market and doesn't get a decent offer.

Here are the facts:

• He's due 14 million under his current contract. 
• If any team had already put a 5th or 6th round pick on the table the Cowboys would have pulled the trigger by now. 
• The Cowboys will not retain him at the aforementioned cap number. 

All that being considered, a pay cut would not be unfathomable. And if Jerry pulls it off, he gets a lot of credit for not dumping Romo on the first day of the new league year. AND, the Texans literally shit their pants.  

We could see the Texans going to Defcon 1 and doing the unthinkable… trading into the top 10 to majorly reach and draft Deshaun Watson. They would have to trade away even more high draft picks to make this move… and it might end up being their only viable option.

Sometimes the best move is doing nothing at all. I really think the Texans (and their fans) will regret trading Brock away even more than they regretted signing him.

The Worst Team In The NFL

Woody Johnson has made every wrong move an NFL owner can make in his 17 seasons with the New York Jets. He inherited a team with a winning culture built brilliantly by Bill Parcells.

The tuna handed him a devastatingly disruptive defense and an offense with one of the most dominate RB's of his generation as well as a powerful offensive line. They had a solid game manager at QB and a bunch of hungry homegrown talent like Wayne Chrebet. He also handed him Bill Belichick as a ready made head coach and an amazing group of assistant coaches. Oh, and he threw in 4 first round draft picks in Woody's first NFL draft as owner… five total in the top 50.

He also inherited a team that was in a bad situation regarding their home stadium, a deal that essentially had them renting their playing field from their cross town rivals. BUT, even though the fans were forced to tailgate under a huge illuminated sign that read "Giants Stadium" each home game, there was still a 10 year waiting list for season tickets. Many NFL owners would kill for that financial situation and fan loyalty.

Take a moment and consider all of the things I have just listed. Do you know how hard it is is to fuck that up… as badly as he has???? It takes staggering incompetency.

He had only 2 jobs as the owner. Make sure he retained that coaching staff by ponying up some absurd cash and getting the Jets their own stadium… which he promised the fan base shortly after taking over.

Woody Johnson is simply a loser. With his money he should wield influence and be able to get what he wants. When you buy a team in the most popular sport in the nation and the biggest media market you have to be brash. You can't continually look for bargains and settle for second best. He has no idea how run an organization. There is no blueprint for building a championship NFL franchise… but there is some basic fundamentals for success.

The first one is you don't do the same thing over and over and over. He has hired 6 head coaches. Lets not count Belichick because he only lasted a day… the other 5 were all defensive specialists and they were all first time head coaches. The same thing, time after time. He has hired 4 GM's… all with no previous experience in their position. He has drafted two QB's in the 1st round… only two in 17 seasons, both times in notoriously weak QB drafts. All of the other QB's have been 2nd round (or later), 2nd best options like Kellen Clemens, Geno Smith, and most recently Petty and Hackenberg.

All of these issues I am listing have a common thread. First time GM's and head coaches come cheap. A jointly owned stadium costs HALF as much. Bluechip, franchise QB's are not cheap. Notice a pattern?

There's no reason the Jets shouldn't be a desirable landing spot for elite executives, coaches and free agents. The media market is second to none, NYC is the greatest city in the world offering any and every amenity known to man. And the Jets owner is one of the wealthiest in the league. Teams like the Jags, Bills and Browns can't offer anything near what New York City offers. This team should be a prime landing spot for the best of the best.

Why can't the Jets get a premiere GM with a track record? A head coach with a championship pedigree? Why do players take less money to stay away from the Jets organization? Because they know Woody is a cheap loser. It's that simple.

So the team continues to get stuck with executives and coaches who are unqualified and are trying to learn on the job. And players who are simply in it exclusively for the money. It's a deeply ingrained culture of losing. The Jets should have a stadium that is the crown jewel of the NFL located in the heart of NYC. They should have the most expensive coaches, scouts and executives money can buy. And if they did... free agents would be lined up and the team would actually have the cap room to sign them.

Last year the ONLY move was to trade up to take Carson Wentz. An experienced GM would have made sure Fitz signed an extension the minute Geno's jaw was broken in the 2015 preseason. It's chess not checkers. A one year extension for 2016 at about 4 million… zero guaranteed would have been appropriate. And he would have signed that in late August. Instead they let him go out and throw 30+ TD's and enter the offseason as a free agent.

BUT, even the best minds in the game would have had a hard time predicting Fitz's success in 2015… so there was still a way to properly handle this issue. He should have been told, the moment the Jets lost to the inferior Bills week 17, that he has a few weeks to accept an offer… around 8 million for 2016/ 12 million for 2017/ 15 million for 2018…. 35 million, 3 years… 10 million guaranteed. If he didn't sign by the first day of the new league year the deal was off the table and the Jets were going to move forward with out him. Period.

That would have cost 8 in 2016 (instead of 12) and 2 in 2017… after he was cut. Any team can eat 2 million. Instead the Jets are paying Fitz 5 million in dead money this season. Combine that with 6 million of dead cash for Revis and the Jets are wasting over 10 million in salary cap space being paid to players for the luxury of not having them on the roster. Amateur mismanagement.

Knowing this was going to be a horrendous QB draft class in 2017, Wentz was the only move. A young stud like him would have been a big draw to free agents this off season. It would have taken balls to move from #20 to #2, but considering the players who the Jets took with the draft picks they held on to… my point is even more reinforced.

I won't even start to break down what a terrible job Todd Bowles has done as a head coach. This guy is Ray Rhodes 2.0 Completely lost in the weeds. Terrible job utilizing his talent (yes, they played a 300lb+ guy at MLB… dropping him back 15-20 yards in coverage). And his in game management is simultaneously gutless and clueless. He's a coordinator and nothing more. And EVERYONE who knows anything knows this guy has zero chance of being the Jets coach in 2018. So again, free agents and top assistant coaches will avoid Florham Park like the plague.

So whats the solution? If Woody stays as the owner the Jets will always be losers. There's no way around it. He won't accidentally stumble upon a lucky draft pick and find a franchise QB in the 4th round. He won't discover that diamond in the rough assistant coach who's ready to take the next step or that young genius scout that is ready to be the next Bill Polian. He will just settle for 2nd best.

That being said… here's a simple way for Woody to turn it all around. In case he enjoys reading scathing articles about him and see's my suggestion.

Let the 2017 season play out. With Macc and Bowles in charge a top 3 draft pick is more than likely. #1 overall is very possible. When the smoke clears you will have a top pick in a draft that might have 2 to 3 bluechip QB prospects. 65 to 80 million in cap room is going to be there depending on which players are retained. And you have a handful of young talented players who the previous 2 GM's have stumbled upon. Enunwa & Williams are the real deal. And guys like Shell, Anderson, Lee and Burris look like possible impact players moving forward. Most importantly the bar couldn't be set any lower.

This is a perfect environment for an elite culture changing coach to step into and build a team in his own image. He has everything he needs to start from scratch and begin to sculpt a winner. And it would be almost impossible to do worse in 2018 than the Jets will do in 2017. One final incentive is that the Belichick/ Brady partnership has to be coming to a close soon. Father time is undefeated, sorry Tommy boy.

Woody should make Jim Harbaugh the highest paid head coach in the league starting in January of 2018, literally back the money truck up to his house. Harbaugh will have a great perspective on the next 2 to 3 drafts because of his time recruiting and coaching at Michigan. Much like Jimmy Johnson when he left Miami for Dallas. He will also attract elite assistant coaches including some of his guys from the 49ers and Michigan. Finally he brings Tom Gamble with him to help run the front office.

Thats the solution. Instead of dredging the bottom of the NFL barrel for beginners who want to cut their teeth…. go out, spend some absurd cash and get the #1 candidate on the market with a proven track record of building a winning culture. Just like when he's shopping for houses, cars and jewelry for his trophy wife, Johnson needs to subscribe to one simple philosophy to turn this star crossed franchise around…. "The best or nothing".

Maybe someone can get this message across the pond to Ambassador Johnson. If you think he wasn't engaged before… wait until you see the next few years from the Jets absentee owner.

-Jay Wagner

Slow start to the new league year...

Fascinatingly uneventful first few weeks of the new league year. There have been a couple of big names in new zip codes like Calais Campbell, Stephon Gilmore, Tony Jefferson and Alshon Jeffery. But the real history making, stunning, mouth wide open move was Brock Osweiler being traded from Houston to Cleveland.

I've been an avid NFL fan for 30 plus years. I have never even thought of the concept of trading a player to another team so that your trade partner could & would absorb a bad contract and salary cap hit. Frankly it's kind of brilliant. Houston sent Brock and his ridiculous 16 million dollar 2017 cap number to Cleveland. They also included a 2nd round pick. Essentially they paid the Browns the bounty of a day two draft pick so that they could use a portion of their 100 million in cap space to bail Houston out of a HUGE mistake. The league approved this, and thats fine… however, I think this will be addressed by the league office in the future.

If teams can start throwing money at free agents only to buy a 'get out of jail free' card for a draft pick down the road it could get out of control. I think a rule that curbs this kind of trade would include a stipulation that the team taking the player can only absorb 75% of the contract. Dead money is the only thing that keeps some NFL GM's from spending like drunken sailors. Some rougue executive could go crazy and start paying free agents double their market value to attract them to a bad team with the long term plan of trading away the bad contracts if the players don't perform. This has a lot of ramifications, not the least of which is that the market value of each position could get dangerously inflated. If the values aren't kept in check it would mess up the franchise tag as well as other major issues. Nonetheless, the GM who came up with this… either in Cleveland or Houston should be identified… because they made history.

One of the things that has made the start of free agency so dull is that one of the key pieces to the puzzle is stuck in Dallas…. still. Romo hasn't been released. I guess Jones thinks some team is going to give up compensation in a trade. I just don't see how thats ever going to happen. The openings have closed up. The Browns not only have their 3rd round pick from last year, but they now have Brock and I am sure they are still targeting Garopolo. The Jets just signed McCown, The Broncos seem happy with their two young QB's…. The only realistic landing spot for Romo is Houston. If they are playing hard ball and refuse to give anything for Tony (probably because of his contract) then Dallas should let him go. The Texans and Tony can then start fresh with a contract that makes sense for both sides. If there isn't at least 2 teams who have a gaping hole and are desperate for your player… why play this game?

The best move so far IMHO is the Patriots trading for Brandon Cooks. They have a very young WR who has proven he is a first round talent. There is not a more sure move they could have made with their #32 overall pick. But, it looks like the Pats are going to trade Malcolm Butler back to New Orleans for their mid first round pick. Even though these will go down as 2 separate trades, it boils down to Cooks and the #17 overall for Butler and the #32 overall. Thats a complete rip off in favor of the Pats. Plain and simple.

My favorite move so far was the Bills figuring out a way to restructure Tyrod and keeping him as their QB for 2017. It was a great move for both sides. They have a solid O-line and running game… combined with Watkins and the possibility of drafting rookie WR Mike Williams…. Taylor will have an excellent chance to prove if he has the goods or not… once and for all.

The worst move IMHO is the Bills not finding a way to keep Gilmore. They developed Hogan and let him walk for nothing to Belichick. Now they draft and develop one of the top 5 CB's in the league and let him walk.. in his prime… to Belichick. It's a loser mentality any way you look at it. You can't crush the evil empire by basically serving as their farm team.

A little over 40 weeks until opening weekend…. and the Pats are looking like the 2017 season is just going to be a formality leading up to another championship.

-Jay Wagner