Team by Team Grades for the 1st Round

Lots of surprises on day one of the 2016 NFL Draft. The big story for me is that 3 of my top 15 ranked players are still on the board as day 2 starts. LB Myles Jack, DE Kevin Dodd and QB Connor Cook are all sitting there, just waiting to make a lucky team much better. All 3 of these guys will be stars by the end of 2017.

The Browns have positioned themselves well. Trading down again (from the 1st pick of round 2) is a mistake in my eyes. Eventually you need to start selecting your guys. I'd take Cook with the first pick of the second round if I were them. You could easily have a one two punch very similar to their division rivals in 2011. Cincinnati landed AJ Green and Andy Dalton in the 1st and 2nd rounds respectively back then. The Browns already took WR Corey Coleman at #15 overall and Cook is waiting for them with their next pick.  Pull the trigger Hue!

As for the rest of the league, here are my grades... Pick by Pick:

1) Rams/ Goff/ QB/ Grade: C ... They passed on an amazing rare talent in Wentz. This draft could end up like Tim Couch and Donavan McNabb going 1 and 2. The long term answer goes 2nd. The Rams have really rolled the dice here. If Goff is mediocre and Wentz becomes the next Cam Newton, the L.A. experiment will be a disaster. However I do think Goff could be a serviceable player, so only time can tell.

2) Eagles/ Wentz/ QB/ Grade: A ... It would be an A+ if they hadn't committed nearly 30 million to free agent QB's already in free agency. Very murky waters in Philly right now. Very crowded QB meeting room. Can a rookie HC work all of this out? We shall see. As for Wentz, he's a stud!

3) Chargers/ Bosa/ LB/ Grade: A ... They needed a playmaker on defense and they did a masterful job of disguising their interest in this player. Don't trade just to trade. If he's the next Von Miller this pick is obviously more valuable then whatever compensation was dangled out there.

4) Cowboys/ Elliott/ RB/ Grade: A+ ... It's been a long time since I was this excited about a RB, or felt that one was worth a top 5 selection. I see the complete package and an Adrian Peterson clone. The only way he ends up as a bust is if he gets some catastrophic injury early in his career. Otherwise hes cash money. Perfect fit.

5) Jaguars/ Ramsey/ CB/ Grade: B+ ... I had him ranked out of the top 10, but still ranked very high. I like Dodd or Buckner a bit more in this spot. Frankly think they should have traded down, which I say rarely. But if he can hang as a true #1 shut down CB in this league it's a good pick. I hate the word "IF' in the top 10. That's why I ranked him #13 on my board.

6) Ravens/ Stanley/ OT/ Grade: A ... #3 on my board, 10 year starter. Very well rounded. No brainer. Expect nothing less from Newsome.

7) 49ers/ Buckner/ DE/ Grade: A+ ... I actually ranked him #7 on my board, so I guess I can't criticize. I love that he is reunited with his teammate from Oregon, Armstead. Cool dynamic. Long term starter here. Good value.

8) Titans/ Conklin/ OT/ Grade: D ... I only had 2 Offensive Linemen in my top 15, and Conklin wasn't one of them. The whole idea of a top 15 pick is a guy who can be a true game changer and have a massive impact on your franchise. Conklin is a late 1st rounder. Yes they have a need at this position but they also have other holes to fill. Guys like Sheldon Rankins, Myles Jack, Vernon Hargreaves and Josh Doctson were still on the board. Passing on them to reach for need is a mistake, especially when you traded back up 7 spots to land him. Ask Jacksonville and Tennessee who both passed on JJ Watt in 2011 to reach for developmental QB's who should have been late 1st or 2nd round picks. I can understand that with all of the last minute drama surrounding Tunsil that they didn't take him, but Conklin? In this spot? FAIL.

9) Bears/ Floyd/ OLB/ Grade: C ... I think Floyd is another Vernon Gholson. A guy who only LOOKS like an NFL LB. But I do give them credit for having the guts to move up to get the guy they wanted. So they get a C for having balls, sadly he's a future bust.

10) Giants/ Apple/ CB/ Grade: F ...  All I'm going to say is this is a developmental player (who I admit has upside) who is at least 2 years from starting and plays a position that you already have over 20 million committed to this year alone. He would have been available much lower. On top of everything the Giants admit they had a trade partner but didn't like the compensation. This pick is the straw that will break Jerry Reece's back and send him to the unemployment line. Way too big of a gamble. The G men paid Damien Harrison in free agency 10 million a year when there was 2 or 3 dominate bluechip quality DT's waiting for them with this pick who would have cost a fraction of that salary. I'm lost New York. SMH

11) Bucs/ Hargreaves/ CB/ Grade: A ... They traded back and got the best CB in the draft IMHO. Great fit and they added an additional 4th round pick. Love it. A team on the rise. Too bad Lovie Smith isn't their to be a part of it. #12 on my board, missed by one LOL

12) Saints/ Rankins/ DT-DE/ Grade: A ... So many holes to fill, but they got a game changer to help that poor defense. Well done. #15 on my board, pretty close.

13) Dolphins/ Tunsil/ LT/ Grade: A ... I don't know what to say here. I had him #1 overall. He's a complete physical freak, the best OL I've seen in the draft in many, many years. But all of this drama with drugs and now a scandal involving money being paid by a coach at Ole' Miss, and the crazy step dad high jacking his twitter account. I don't know. This was a major gamble by Tannenbaum in Miami. Especially because they have two solid tackles. Mr T traded down from #8 and gained two very overpriced players one of which is very fragile. Then he uses the #13 on a guy with major red flags. He doesn't seem to understand the locker room dynamic. But I can't give a grade lower than an A for the #1 player on my board going outside of the top 10. I guess it's worth the gamble.

14) Raiders/ Joseph/ S/ Grade: F ... I don't think this guy was projected in the 1st round by anyone. Maybe some of the teams in the top 15 were so sure that they were going to get great offers for their picks they weren't prepared to take a player. This pick and the Giants at 10 are head scratchers. He's a solid player but he would have been there in the 2nd round.

15) Browns/ Coleman/ WR/ Grade: B ... I like how they moved down twice, I like the player, I just had other guys ranked higher, including WR's. But the WR class didn't have a clear #1, so this is obviously the guy they liked. They have tons of holes to fill, I would have taken Doctson. But some savvy maneuvering here for a team that has looked lost for the past decade in the draft.

16) Lions/ Decker/ OT/ Grade: B ... Solid guy, still a bit of a reach for me. Many playmaker's left on the board, but he has the potential to be a long term starter. Could have done worse.

17) Falcons/ Neal/ S/ Grade: D ... Two safeties in the mid 1st round? Shocked me. I only felt two players were absolute locks with particular teams in this draft... Elliott in Dallas and Darron Lee in Atlanta. Guess I was wrong. Really surprised they passed on a ultra fast LB who fits their system perfectly. I see this player as a 2nd round talent.

18) Colts/ Kelly/ C/ Grade: A ... Love this guy, he would have been right outside of my top 15. Nasty, smart interior linemen. He will be Luck's new BFF. Great pick, for need and value.

19) Bills/ Lawson/ LB-DE/ Grade: D ... Of coarse Rex chooses a kid from his sons college. I have this guy ranked as a major BUST and that's because he is lazy. He takes plays off. When a guy does that in college, when he's auditioning for the NFL, imagine what effort and consistency you will get now that you made him a millionaire. Perfect Rex guy, all hype.

20) Jets/ Lee/ LB/ Grade: D ... The only reason this isn't an F is because this kid is smart. He's also lightning fast. But, an undersized LB who can't tackle wasn't what I expected with the #20 overall pick. He will get swallowed up by O-linemen, and if he does get there you have a 50/50 chance he makes the tackle. I guess the hope is that he can cover Gronk. Good luck rookie! I am reserving an epic rant about what a dumpster fire the Jets last 7 to 8 drafts have been and how mismanaged their roster is for after the 2nd round. Stay tuned for some venom later this weekend.

21) Texans/ Fuller/ WR/ Grade: C ... I am on record saying this guy shouldn't be a 1st round pick. I like his 40 time, but he has the route tree of a pop warner WR. I need the whole package if I'm using a 1st round pick on a WR. He's a one trick pony. That being said the Texans desperately need speed. They got it. Considering that Fuller will have a top 3 WR lined up on the opposite side of the field, he may have some success. But trading up one spot, passing on Doctson, and then the Redskins taking Doctson could be a real PR nightmare in the next 2 years.

22) Redskins/ Doctson/ WR/ Grade: A+ ... I love this kid. The next Anquan Boldin IMHO. Perfect fit and they also got more draft picks by swapping with the Texans. Well done.

23) Vikings/ Treadwell/ WR/ Grade: C ... Too high for this guy. He's a slot WR. Taking a guy this high puts a lot of pressure on him to be something he's not. That being said, he can play. So they get a C.

24) Bengals/ Jackson III/ CB/ Grade: B ... Fills a need, maybe the 3rd or best defensive back in the draft, and he ends up going as the 6th selected. Good value. This team has consistently had the best drafts for the past 5 years or so. I'm not questioning them.

25) Steelers/ Burns/ CB/ Grade: D ... Yuck, I have to wonder if they were in heavy negotiations with Denver at this point. So many impactful players left on the board. I was sure they were taking Kevin Dodd. No one predicted this many DB's in this years first round.

26) Broncos/ Lynch/ QB/ Grade: F ... You had Osweiler and you let him walk because you are John Elway. This kid might be able to develop into another Brock in maybe 3-4 years. How does this help you in 2016? Total FAIL.

27) Packers/ Clark/ DT/ Grade: A- ... I would have rolled the dice on Myles Jack here. If he works out you enhance Mathews impact. Clark is a big, powerful hardworking run stuffer up the middle. They need one of those. Good pick, but I would have taken more of a risk.

28) 49ers/ Garnett/ G/ Grade: F ... Most experts projected him late 2nd early 3rd. Not sure what Kelly knows that everyone else doesn't, but it seems we say that about him a lot. Trading up and passing on Connor Cook was Ludacris. Head Scratcher.

29) Cardinals/ Nkemdiche/ DE/ Grade: F ... Major off field issues with this guy. He has a brother who is a REAL bad influence. The Cards apparently told him on his draft phone call they want him to stay away from his brother. Good luck with that. I'm also not a big fan of him on the field. Inconsistent.

30) Panthers/ Butler/ OT/ Grade: D ... A reach for need. He's a quality player, borderline starter. There is upside here. Kind of a shot in the dark.

31) Seahawks / Ifedi/ G/ Grade: C ... Another James Carpenter. Big powerful road grader. Too many game changers left on the board to be this conservative. But he should produce.

-Jay Wagner

Connor Cook and my other 'Stars & Busts' from the #NFLDraft

Why not Connor Cook? I can't find the huge flaws that rank him between 40 and 50 on most 'experts' draft boards. That makes him an early 2nd rounder or a very late first if he's lucky. And those predictions seem pretty realistic. I see a guy who has the size (6'4" 220lbs), the starting experience, big game experience, a solid yet inconsistent arm (like every rookie ever), and he even ran a sub 4.8 40 (which is not bad for a QB).

Goff has essentially the same build and experience vs. similar competition, not to mention a much worse record. The big knock on Cook is that he is off putting and has a bit of an attitude. Personally that's my issue with Goff not Cook. Cook looks way more comfortable and likeable in front of the cameras.

I'm not Trying to down grade #GoffOrWentz, I have already said I think they are both NFL caliber QB's. I have also said that Wentz is maybe the most natural passer I've seen in a decade combined with his massive frame and ability to make plays with his feet. That puts him as #1 on my QB draft board. Goff is a close second. But just like the 2004 draft I see 3 long term franchise QB's coming out of this draft. #3 being Cook of coarse.

There are question marks about each of these three QB's as well as every other draft prospect this year. But what makes me include Cook with these other 2 QB's is the fact he has improved every year. That's the determining factor when considering any draft pick. First off has the player plateaued? Have they maxed out their ability?

Tim Tebow is a perfect example. He was an interesting prospect back when the Broncos made him a first round pick. He had the frame, the durability, toughness, intangibles, wining record and was obviously a threat when using his legs. The question was could he grow and develop as a passer. The answer was no.

Cam Newton was another example. He had a very similar list of positives when compared to Tebow. He also had a much more powerful arm. But he was a terribly inconsistent passer his first three years in the league. After watching his MVP performance in 2015 we see proof that he has been committed to being as well rounded a player as possible. He doesn't use his ability to make plays running the ball as a crutch. Instead he's been focused on getting better as a pocket passer and then combining that with his other strengths.

So, the deciding factor with all three of these QB's will be 1) Can they get better, or are they maxed out?... AND, 2) Do they have the fire in their bellies to put in the work necessary?

This is why I see Cook as a future star in this draft and Paxton Lynch as a sure fire bust. I think Lynch is the 5th best QB in this draft, and he will almost surely (and curiously) be a first round pick. A HUGE reach by a QB needy team is coming through on my crystal ball. Sadly I think that team may be the NY Jets. I even think they may trade up for this guy. Yet another bone head move by one of the worst drafting teams in pro sports. They already have Bryce Petty, why draft another project QB?

Anyways, on to some other players I really like in this draft. Here is my top 15 ranked players followed by some possible busts.

Future 'Stars'

Bluechip/ Can't Miss:

1. OT Laremy Tunsil (Boy does that sound like a player from Ole' Miss or what?)
2. DE/ OLB Joey Bosa (Reminds me of a faster more dynamic Jarred Allen)
3. OT Ronnie Stanley (10 year starter)
4. RB Ezekiel Elliott (Will make the league forget who Todd Gurley is)
5. QB Carson Wentz (See above)
6. DE Kevin Dodd (Not as much hype as his teammate Lawson, but he's the real deal)

Possible stars with some big question marks:

7. DE Deforest Buckner (very close to a bluechip ranking)
8. QB Jared Goff (See above)
9. OLB Myles Jack (he is the complete package, but the injury is a concern)
10. TE Hunter Henry (Jets or Raiders, PLEASE! Most well rounded and NFL ready TE to come out of college that I can remember. For him to be a bust he will have to go to a dumpster fire franchise like Cleveland or the Bills)
11. WR Josh Doctson (The next Anquan Boldin, mark my words. He's tenacious!)
12. CB Vernon Hargreaves (if he was just a notch faster he's a bluechipper)
13. CB/S Jalen Ramsey (He is an amazing athlete, but he isn't a clear cut #1 CB, he's a tweener... not a top 10 pick IMHO)
14. QB Connor Cook (See above)
15. DT/DE Sheldon Rankins (A Sheldon Richardson clone, former DROY)

And now for the busts!!!

These guys will be drafted WAY too high:

• MLB Reggie Ragland (One of many Alabama players I will list here. Slow and lazy, he's a J.A.G. in the NFL... 'just another guy'. I see him as a 4th round pick)

• DT Jarran Reed (He simply doesn't get to the QB, just a big body who bullied The Tides inferior opponents. 3rd round talent)

• OLB Leonhard Floyd (Just big for no reason. If you can't shed blocks you only LOOK like a LB in the NFL. 3rd rounder)

• DE/OLB Shaq Lawson (Gaudy 40 times and college stats aren't what I look for. He's dumb and wears out easily. Waste of a pick in any round.)

• DT/DE A'Shawn Robinson (This guy has a chance to eventually be productive, but I think it will take time. He's a late 2nd rounder)

• WR Will Fuller (6 foot, 180lb WR's need to be able to go over the middle, no matter how fast their 40 is. He's a one trick pony. There are only so many go routes to be run in this league. He's a 4th rounder)

• OLB Darren Lee (Smart guy with a high motor. But he is weak, his frame is all show. And he is a terrible tackler. He's a 3rd round talent only because of his brains and speed)

• QB Paxton Lynch (3 year project in the NFL, and even then he's a huge maybe. He's a 4th rounder like Bryce Petty was last year.)

• DE Robert Nkemdiche (drug issues and 6.5 sacks in 3 seasons at Mississippi? Nah bro, sorry. 5th round or later.)

• WR Laquon Treadwell (He has significant talent. If he went in the mid 2nd to early 3rd he would have a chance to develop and shine in the slot. However he will be a victim to his draft position. I bet he goes top 20, and that means teams expect him to be a #1 WR. He's just not that.)

-Jay Wagner

Two big trades at the top of the draft

As soon as the Titans traded their #1 overall to the Rams I knew the Browns would trade out of the #2 spot. That happened today as Cleveland swaps the #2 overall with the Eagles #8 overall (as well as a bunch of other compensation).

So the Eagles traded a couple of extremely overpaid players to Miami to move up a few spots to #8, and then they execute today's blockbuster to position themselves to essentially land the Rams sloppy seconds.

I think this is a huge mistake for Philly on so many levels. First of all they already have 30 million tied up on Bradford and Daniels in 2016. So throwing a player, drafted this high, into that QB meeting room and most likely redshirting him in 2016 is just dumb. Any player drafted in the top 10 of the draft should be able to, and expected to make a major contribution year one. Especially when you essentially traded 2 starters and like 7 or 8 total draft picks (if you include their original #13 and the #8 they acquired from that first trade) to make him your QB.

All of that for a guy to hold a clipboard? Dumb. The part that is the most perplexing is that they don't know who the Rams are taking. It looks about 75% like it will be Goff, but only the Rams know for sure. So you traded up for 'whoever is left'. Dumb.

The only way all of this works out for them is if...  1) The Rams sloppy seconds, who the Eagles are left with, becomes a 10 year starter 2) They trade Bradford before training camp starts. Two very big 'If's'

As for the Titans/ Rams trade, that really boils down to what each team does with the picks they acquired. A few years back the Rams where on the other side of this type of trade when they handed RG III to the Redskins for a boat load of picks. Both teams really lost out. The Rams only hit on a couple of those picks they acquired from Washington, and they let the solid ones like Janoris Jenkins leave in free agency. So both teams have almost zero players left from that trade, which was only 4 years ago.

If the Rams land their guy, the face of the franchise they have so desperately needed, as they unpack and settle into the leagues 2nd largest media market... it's worth all of the picks they sent to Tennessee. But does that mean the Titans are losers? of coarse not. The reality is this when it comes to draft trades... both teams can come out winners or losers. Especially when the two teams involved have very different needs.

That brings me back to the Browns/ Eagles trade. The Browns have started 24 different QB's in the last decade and a half. They have had 2 high profile, 1st round bust QB's in the last 4 years alone. They need a QB way more than the Eagles right now. If Philly does land a 10 year starter with this pick, and the Browns passed on the one piece to the puzzle that has eluded them since coming back into the league in 1999, the Browns will be branded as the losers in this trade, no matter what they do with the other picks.

And one final thought: I started questioning Hue Jackson's judgment the day he accepted the HC job in Cleveland, but by passing on Goff and or Wentz by trading away this pick I am starting to think he's lost his mind. I know he's not the GM, but we all know he has a major say in moves like this. Putting all your eggs in RG III's basket, considering his durability and attitude issues, is a risky gamble.

It looks to me like the powers that be in Cleveland are putting together some elaborate 3 or 4 year, 'John Idzik' style rebuilding plan (how did that work out for him in NY?). That worked in the 70's and 80's. In 2016 you have 16 games to show your stuff. Especially in Cleveland where they fired a coach with less than 365 days on the job.

Hopefully for Hue this team can win at least 6 games this year. Frankly that would be a miracle. Am I crazy for speculating that the movie "Draft Day" was more of a documentary about how things work in the Browns building than just a work of fiction? LOL

-Jay Wagner

My Historical Draft Analysis and Predictions

I used to run a blog focusing on the New York Jets. I closed is late last year. However, dating back to 2009 I always shared my thoughts on the incoming draft classes. Here's a retrospective including links to some of those posts. Lets see how often I was right, and How often I was DEAD wrong.

2009:

In 2009 I spent a lot of time narrowing down the players I felt were can't miss prospects. http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2009/04/with-17th-pick-in-2009-draft-ny-jets.html

I was right about guys like Clay Mathews, Jeremy Maclin, Robert Ayers and BJ Raji. All or any of these guys would have dramatically improved the Jets roster. Instead they went with Sanchez and Shonn Greene with their first 2 picks. YUCK. I was dead wrong about Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells. I was obsessed with Knowshon that year, and both of these highly touted backs fizzled out quick in the NFL. I was also off with Ziggy Hood and Kenny Britt, but they are both solid role players.

2010:

I started posting players who I think would not only be long tern impact starters but also the players who were surrounded by hype that I saw as busts.  http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2010/04/final-draft-thoughts-and-perfect-spot.html 

In 2010 I was in love with Demaryius Thomas, Jerry Hughes and Linval Joseph. All 3 of these guys have delivered on the pro level and signed big contacts after their original rookie contracts expired. Hughes looked like a real bust when he first landed in Indy, but after a trade and scheme change in Buffalo his star began to rise. I was dead wrong about Jimmy Clausen, Sergio Kindle and a WR named Mardy Gilyard. I thought Gilyard was going to be the next Wes Welker LOL. He just never showed anything in the NFL. I was also right about Joe Hayden, Bryan Bulaga and Nate Allen.

As for Busts I saw through the hype and called out Tebow, Taylor Mays, Jared Odrick and Jahvid Best. They were all 1st round busts. For some reason I was down on Eric Berry, who obviously turned out to be outstanding. I also called out Bradford and what a bad pick he would be #1 overall. As far as I am concerned I was right, but I guess the jury is still out on him for some people. I called him out for being made of paper mache. And he has proven that to be true.

2011:

This was a weird year when it came to my draft analysis because my blog focused on the Jets. Going into 2011 they had a pretty stacked roster and were drafting at the bottom of the 1st round because of an appearance in the AFCCG. So I paid little attention to the draft, especially since the Jets GM kept trading away picks like tic-tacs.

The guy I really liked for the Jets was Phil Taylor, because we had a big need on the D-line. The Jets took Wilkerson which was 'six of one half a dozen of another' IMO.

The one thing I was right about, well partially, was all of the hype surrounding garbage QB's that were predicted to go a the top of the draft. Gabbert, Ponder and Locker were all the definition of BUSTS, and I knew it. I also hated Cam Newton. I didn't like his personality or how his game would translate to the pros. However, he found an organization and coaching staff that figured out how to build an offense around him and now he's the prototype NFL QB. It took years, but he has won me over, I'm a fan.

2012, 13 and 14:

The jets were a mess and I started to lose interest. But...

2015:

... in 2015 The Jets hit the reset button and I dove back into the draft (with a shred of hope in my heart). http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2015/04/my-top-25-prospects-inthe-2015-nfl-draft.html

I really wanted Shane Ray with the #6 overall pick. I spent months talking about how this guy was the right fit for the Jets. Then his draft stock plummeted days before the 1st round began because of drugs. At that point I wanted the Jets to trade down. My top 5 were Fowler Jr, Leonhard Williams, Ray, Shreff and Kevin White. Well, 2 of these 5 never even saw the field their rookie year, but I still believe in Fowler and White. Somehow Williams slipped to #6 and the Jets snatched him up. That's a 10 year starter and I can't complain.

Some of the other players who I really liked and will watch closely in 2016 were Duke Johnson, Green-Beckham, Philip Dorsett and DE/OLB Owa Odighizuwa. I think by 2017 all of these players will be considered high quality early first round worthy players. All four showed some flashes in 2015 and they will continue to develop this year.

My interesting view was that Winston and Mariota would both be busts. I felt Winston was a prototype NFL passer, but would struggle with off the field issues. The on the field stuff has proven true. But the off the field concerns still remains to be seen obviously. I did rank h top 20, but I wouldn't have used the #1 overall on him.

Mariota was the exact opposite for me. His intangibles are extraordinary, but I didn't think his game could translate to the NFL. He proved me wrong year one, but one decent rookie campaign doesn't make a career. I am fascinated to see how NFL defenses play him now that they have a full season of film. I also have major health concerns regarding Mariota. I don't like his frame considering the abuse he will take as a mobile QB.

If Winston keeps his nose clean for the next 10 years, and Mariota stays healthy and continues to grow a s a pocket passer I will be happy to say I was wrong. But I still think that by 2018 we will be saying that these guys are the next Vince Young and Matt Leinart (and those guys didn't even go as high as famous Jameis and MM).

As for the Jets, Williams was a tough guy to pass on. They have an embarrassment of riches at the DE position and they also have so many needs that I couldn't help but take issue with the luxury pick in this spot. But who can deny this guys talent.

That being said, the day after the draft ended I went on record as saying that I would have taken Ereck Flowers in the 1st round and Green-Beckham instead of Devin Smith  http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2015/05/maccs-1st-draft-is-in-books.html  

Considering the recent retirement of left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and the fact Devin Smith totaled 115 yards for the WHOLE 2015 season, Flowers and Green-Beckham would have been much better picks, and they may have helped the Jets get over the hump and make the playoffs last year. But what do I know =)

-Jay Wagner

First Round Mock Draft

There is less than 30 days until the Titans are on the clock. Most of the pro days are complete, the combine is in the books and private workouts are in full swing.

My 3 favorite months in the NFL calendar year are January, September and April. I grew up as a Jets and Raiders fan, so the end of April was usually the time when I had the most hope, and by early October I was usually looking forward to next April again LOL

I've always found it to be a waste of time to start Mock drafting in January and February. There's simply too much that happens leading up to the first week of April. Rosters change so much in the months that follow the Super Bowl. I find it to be best to let the dust settle and then evaluate.

First and foremost... I am the biggest trade scenario conspiracy theorist in the world. I could write post after post about all of the trades that could and should happen. But truthfully, big blockbuster trades rarely happen especially in the top 10. We all remember the ill-advised trade the Redskins made for RGIII. Lots of people fired because of that one. NFL front office guys are gamblers by nature, but there is enough pressure drafting a top 10 draft pick without adding in the fact you mortgaged your future by trading away a bunch of players and picks  to move up. Every draft pick is a gamble.

I think that the teams drafting in the top 4 will stay the same. The Titans will be happy to stay at #1, the Browns will try hard to move their #2 but the price will be too high, I'm sure the Chargers will be open to a trade but will have a bunch of impact games changers to add to their roster if they draft #3 and finally the Cowboys will also stay put at #4.

When the Jags are on the clock at #5 things will get very interesting. If Either Goff or Wentz are still available phones will be ringing in Florida. If the 49ers sit back and expect one of these guys to drop to them because the Jags and Ravens aren't taking a QB they will be very disappointed IMHO. I don't see anyway the Broncos are able to trade up into the top 10, but the Rams and Jets have the ammunition and they are both QB needy. It will be Los Angeles vs. New York. Epic!

All that being said, I am going to do this Mock Draft with no trades, just a straight up estimation of what player will go to what team. So here we go!

1) Titans select Tackle Laremy Tunsil. 6'5" 310lbs... prototype 10 year starter. Can't miss.

2) Browns select S/CB Jalen Ramsey... easily the best all around player in the draft. Can't pass.

3) Chargers select DE Deforest Buckner 6'7" 291lbs... the Leonard Williams of this draft. Can't pass.

4) Cowboys select RB Ezekiel Elliot. Combined with that O-line and pass catchers Romo will have his best shot ever at a Super Bowl.

5) Jaguars select DE/LB Joey Bosa 6'5" 269lbs. I'd love to see him line up opposite Fowler Jr.

6) Ravens select WR Laquan Teadwell from Ole' Miss. They may be the most WR needy team in the league. 120 million dollar QB's deserve a top 10 drafted WR on the roster.

7) 49ers select QB Jared Goff. This is assuming that Kaepernick is not on the roster.

8) Eagles select QB Carson Wentz. And trust me, if this QB falls to them they will have Bradford traded before the draft weekend ends. Maybe before the first round ends.

9) Bucs select CB Vernon Hargreaves III. Can't miss no brainer here. What an exciting young squad.

10) Giants select WR Josh Doctson from TCU. Perfect book end for Beckham Jr. Maybe the best WR in this draft.

11) Bears select DT A'Shawn Robinson 6'4" 310lbs. Fox needs to shore up that D-line

12) Saints select OLB Leonard Floyd... they need a pass rush, and Floyd is the obvious answer.

13) Dolphins select OLB Myles Jack. I am much too familiar with the river boat roster management style of Mike Tannenbaum. He will roll the dice on a player coming off a major injury. His upside is unquestionable, but will he make any impact in 2016?

14) Raiders select WR Will Fuller from Notre Dame. Carr, Cooper, Murray and Fuller can lead that team to the playoffs. This is immediately the best young WR tandem in the game. They compliment each other so well.

15) Rams select (who else but) QB Paxton Lynch. They need to make a splash with this pick. This guy is the biggest gamble in the 1st round for me. He has all the tools to be a megastar, and he can also be a complete bust. Sadly I don't think he's a first year starter, but he may be thrown into the fire.

16) Lions select Tackle Ronnie Stanley from Notre Dame. Perfect fit and an amazing value if he lasts this long.

17) Falcons select MLB Reggie Ragland, he will be Quinn's new Bobby Wagner.

18) Colts select CB William Jackson III, this was a hard one because they have so many holes to fill, this guy is a top 10 talent.

19) Bills select Tackle Jack Conklin from Michigan State. This is the perfect player for the Jets. Rex isn't too bright but he knows that gang green needs this guy and he will love snatching him away. LOL

20) Jets select OLB/DE Shaq Lawson 6'3" 269lbs. Paired up with Lorenzo Mauldin these big bodied 3-4 edge rushers could be what that Jets D has been missing. I think the Jets should find a way to move up for Carson Wentz, but I know it's a long shot. I also think they should try and leap frog the Colts and Bills by trading with the Falcons to try and land a bluechip Tackle like Stanley or Conklin, but I doubt they will.

21) Redskins select WR Corey Coleman. Gruden is an offensive guy and he needs to restock his pass catchers and give his very highly paid, very average talent QB more help. Coleman will compliment Jackson well.

22) Texans select Tackle Taylor Decker fro Ohio State. Gotta' protect the franchise!

23) Vikings select Guard Cody Whitehair from Kansas State. They need serious O-line help. Great late 1st round pick. 10 year starter.

24) Bengals select LB Darron Lee. He's fast and maybe a top 10 talent. He'd complete that LB corps. well.

25) Steelers select CB Eli Apple. They need a playmaker in their secondary. Big run on Ohio State players here in the late 1st round.

26) Seahawks select DE Robert Nkemdiche. Love how his skills fit with this defense. Great value in this spot.

27) Packers select LB Jaylon Smith from Notre Dame. He needs to show a clean bill of health in the next few weeks, but he is a solid 1st round talent.

28) Chiefs select CB Mackenise Alexander to replace Sean Smith. Should start year one.

29) Cardinals select DT Andrew Billings from Baylor. Supremely powerful D-lineman. Great fit for what they do.

30) Panthers select RB Derrik Henry from the Crimson Tide. I know he is projected in the 2nd round and they have a big need on the O-line, but they are a dynamic rushing team, why not take Henry here?

31) Broncos select DT Sheldon Rankins. The best front 7 in the game can use a shot in the arm like this to help make up for some of their losses in free agency. I see no way they take any of the remaining QB's with this pick. They aren't good enough to warrant it.

So there you have it. I now it's a bit shocking to think that a QB won't be off the board in the first 6 picks, but I truly think that the Browns are very high on RGIII and passing on Ramsey would be very difficult. I also don't see how the Cowboys can afford to take a QB when they have a franchise QB in place, no matter how fragile he is. Elliott is a perfect fit in big D.

-Jay Wagner