Quarterback Carousel season is upon us...

Free Agency starts in a little over a week. Players are already being cut, shopped and evaluated. I will post analysis regarding free agents, the NFL Draft, and possible trades. And, of coarse we will look at every position thoroughly. However, the most important position is unquestionably the all important QB. Everything else takes a back seat.

Jimmy Johnson once said "Having an elite QB used to be an important thing, now it's the only thing". That being said, obviously a QB needs talent around him to succeed. But if that single piece of the puzzle is missing, forget about being relevant in todays NFL.

Take the 2015 Rams as a perfect example. At this time last year they were finalizing a trade for Nick Folk. I thought Folk was the best QB available last offseason. He was way better than any free agents and far ahead of any potential rookies. So, via trade, the Rams made the move they felt was best for them. It turns out that he was a poor fit for their system.

The trade that was much more effective, and received virtually no media attention, was a 7th round pick that was sent from NYC down to Houston. The Jets received the services of Ryan Fitzpatrick in return and he was a better fit. I can't say I think he's a better player than Foles, but with the talent surrounding him and a play caller who he was very familiar with, he put up the best season of his journeyman career.

The Rams have one of the most talented/ young defenses in the game, an outstanding veteran coaching staff and the OROY at the RB position. But, without the right guy behind center they were mediocre at best.

So in the next few weeks HUGE free agent contracts will be handed out and we may even see a few blockbuster trades like we did last year. But I want to focus on the new faces in new places who will be wearing those fancy red jerseys during practice sessions that indicate "DO NOT TOUCH"... the QB's.

Colin Kaepernick is the name that has been in the headlines throughout the NFL combine this past weekend. The 49er's GM and head coach both came out and said that they want Kap to stay in SF, they think he's a good fit for their new offense and that Kaepernick feels the same. They even used the cliché expression "on the same page".

Inexplicably, only hours after Chip Kelly's press conference, Kap's agent releases a statement demanding a trade. This is terrible for everyone involved. You can't have this kind of chaos with this ultra-important member of your franchise. If a QB with #7's skill set doesn't want to play for Kelly I can only imagine how the defensive players must be feeling. None-the-less, it's hard to see how Colin plays in SF in 2016. The question is where would he fit the best?

First you have to examine if he would accept being a back up. For example, would he consider going to a team like New England where he would sit for a year or two and potentially take over? Brady will be 40 when Colin is 30. Kap obviously needs some time to improve as a pocket passer. He would also be backing up an "old" QB. The chances Tom terrific goes down and Colin steps in increase as Brady ages. I don't think he would see this as an ideal scenario, but backing up and old guy like Brady or even Tony Romo in Dallas may be the best for his long term development.

Instead I am sure he would desire a spot where he would be the starter from day one. There is more than one team that has the right conditions for Collin to step in and start. I can't comment regarding how interested any of these following teams may be in acquiring him, but I can say that he is better than what they already have.

The teams that I think WILL be in the conversation are the Broncos, Rams, Texans and Browns. The team that I think SHOULD be in the conversation is the Dolphins. But I will touch on that in a moment, because I know it's unlikely. Lets start with the 4 prime candidates. If the Broncos can't sign their first choice for the 'hometown discount' Elway is begging for, their next best option is Kaepernick. I assume this would also be his most preferred landing spot, but what would Elway give up via trade for him?

The Rams simply need a recognizable name to sell some tickets and jerseys. The Texans have been riding the QB carousel more than any other team for the last few years, so obviously they would be players. And finally, Hue Jackson desperately needs to start this new era in Cleveland with a proven winner leading his offense. The idea of Jackson's ability as a QB 'whisperer' & an offense designer combined with Kap's talent is very enticing to any football fan. But Hue has the #2 overall pick and his choice of bluechip QB's waiting for him at the end of April, so I don't see it happening.

The least likely option would be an idea that I had for a trade that would help 2 high profile players and 2 struggling franchises. Ryan Tannehill has been the face of the Miami Dolphins for 4 years. He's a former first round QB that hasn't been able to get his team to a playoff birth, not to mention a playoff win. He has been inconsistent and seems to shrink in big games where you would need to see him rise up. However, he has shown that he is a serviceable starter (which half of the teams in this league lack) and I don't think he has ever been used properly. Ryan is a former WR with outstanding athleticism. He is the prototype QB for Chip Kelly's offense.

Swapping Kaepernick and Tannehill would be a win-win for both players and teams. Tannehill and Kap both need a change of scenery.  If Kelly has any chance of succeeding in his new position he needs a QB that fits his system properly and who can run it with out limitations. Unlike Foles, Sanchez and Bradford, Ryan can be as dynamic as Mariota was in Oregon.

Adam Gase orchestrating an offense with Colin, Jarvis Landry and Lamar Miller (who needs to be a top priority as a resigning) could make some serious waves in the AFC East. Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick are way too familiar with the offensive weapons that occupy their division. Kap and Gase would shake things up. So, that's my 2 cents on Kaepernick.

Other QB's who may find themselves in new zip codes include free agents like Fitzpatrick, Osweiler and Bradford. Also some possible trade bait QB's include Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Mark Sanchez, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Nassib and of coarse the one and only RG III. One name not mentioned here is the soon to be released Jonny Manziel. I don't think he will be on a roster in 2016, sadly.

I just mentioned 11 of the top candidates who would and could be available to be your favorite teams new field general. I will rank them based on overall talent, and next to their name list the team that I feel is the best place for them in 2016. In some cases it will be their 2015 team. I am not factoring durability into this ranking. If I was Bradford and RG III would be at the very bottom.

1. Bradford- Eagles
2. Osweiler- Rams
3. Foles- Kansas City
4. RG III- Texans
5. Fitzpatrick- Jets
6. Sanchez- Eagles
7. Glennon- Cowboys
8. Mettenberger- Chargers
9. Garoppolo- Patriots
10. McCarron- Browns
11. Nassib- Giants

Now for some explanation.

Bradford can fit the Eagles, Rams, Texans or Browns. I think he should stay put for 3 main reasons: the new coaching staff will simply use him better than Kelly did, the Eagles will pay him what the other 4 teams I listed will, and he's a well polished pro when it comes to dealing with the media. Philly is a HARD place to be a franchise QB. He reminds me of Eli Manning who handles the NY media so well. He won't be rattled by the inevitable boo's.

The 'Brockweiler" should not stay in Denver. He probably will, but he needs to cash the biggest check possible. The Rams are probably more interested in Peyton, but I think he's ready to retire. With an elite young runner behind him and a defense almost as good as what he has in Denver I think Brock can do well. Either way, L.A. is where the cash is.

Nick Foles had a significant injury in 2014 and then was discombobulated in 2015. But I remember the guy I saw in 2013. This guy has the tools. He needs to hit the reset button and go home to the guy who hand picked him in the draft, Andy Reid. Alex Smith has been serviceable, I'm sure Andy is glad he traded for him. But he proved last year that he is not wired for the playoffs. Foles is 26 and can afford to sit for a year or so waiting for Smith to peter out. His contract is also not prohibitive for a back up. They will take a 4th or 5th rounder for him.

RG III is very talented and he should be chomping at the bit to get back into a starting role. I like the whole culture in Houston and if Hoyer could lead them to the postseason on the shoulders of JJ Watt and Mr Hopkins, RG III could take them to the next level. I'd also throw Doug Martin into the mix. Houston needs to trade a 7th round pick for him as long as he is all in and willing to structure a fair contract. Why let him hit the market and possibly get caught in a bidding war?

Fitzpatrick would be nuts to leave NY, they will pay him fair money and those WR's and offensive coordinator are the perfect fit for him. It will be short money, but this journeyman needs to stay put.

Sanchez needs to be in a situation where he is backing up a fragile starter. This gives him the best chance to get back on the field. Bradford is that guy.

Mike Glennon is the perfect fir for Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett. Trade a  mid-round pick for a young gun with a cannon arm. This whole story about Jerry Jones saying Romo is their starter for 4 or 5 more years is nuts. He knows Romo is probably gone by 2017, 2018 the latest. He's trying to defelect attention from them taking a QB with the #4 overall pick. It amateurish IMHO, and no NFL GM is buying it. But, picking a QB with a pick that high and benching him year one (which would be the case in Dallas) is a waste of a top 5 pick. There are WAY too many holes to fill on that team. Drafting and benching a top 5 draft pick is a luxury move, one that Jones can't afford (something he's not used to hearing LOL). Brining in Glennon gives them an insurance policy for Romo in 2016, a potential starter in 2017 and allows them to take a RB or a pass rusher with that high pick.

Mettenberger needs to get out of Tennessee. He has no chance of seeing the field. Backing up an old QB is the perfect spot for him right now. Why not Rivers in San Diego? The Saints and Pats would be good fits as well. Garoppolo and Nassib also need to be in the same scenario as Mettenberger. They are currently in those spots, so I wouldn't seek a trade.

That leaves AJ McCarron. He's in a tough spot. Backing up a QB in his prime. He looked good in my eyes last year as a relief pitcher for the injured Dalton, and he did enough to win that playoff game vs. Pittsburgh. His stock is high right now. He's may be more of a penny stock than a bluechip, but at least he's on the radar. Lets say Dalton is perfectly healthy for the next 2 years.. McCarron becomes the next Jimmy Clausen. Also factor in his offensive coordinator taking a head coach position with a QB needy team. This is his time to shine. His agent should be pushing this move. If Jackson believes in this kid the Browns could trade down from the #2 spot and still land Paxton Lynch in the second half of the first round. Hard to see the Texans not being interested in that trade if they could move up and land a guy like Wentz or Goff.

Lots of decisions to be made over the next 2 months. The moves that are made (or not made) regarding the QB spot can have ramifications that effect franchises for years.

-Jay Wagner

What is the true value of a Running Back?

Are they underrated, overrated, less valuable because of modern schemes and philosophical approaches, or are they simply the cog that makes the whole machine function?????

What we do know is every team needs a few solid ones in 2016. Running back by committee doesn't mean that ANY 2 or 3 backs can be thrown back there and you'll be fine. Nor does it mean that 3 average backs equals out to 1 stud/ game changer from previous era's.

So the question is twofold: A) How high is too high to draft a RB, and B) How much is too much to pay a high profile free agent RB? Doesn't it seem like this part of the NFL game should be simple?

This whole league was built on handing the ball to a fast, powerful back with vision who looks for contact, but can make you miss. The NFL used to look much different 50+ years ago. 11 men lined up, they blocked, they collided violently & deliberately and they methodically moved the chains. It was a game of will... gritty, bloody and triumphant.

Today's NFL is about passing the ball down the field. The amount of rules that have been developed in the past decade to protect passers and pass catchers is crazy. The league protects what they value. Running backs aren't as fragile in the eyes of the NFL rule makers apparently. I'm not sure about this, but I think it's still legal to clothesline RB's Chuck Bednarik style.

There has been a clear shift in philosophy regarding rotating in 2 or even 3 backs as opposed to giving one stud 20, 25 or even 30 carries. Sure, it makes sense on a lot of levels, but if your featured back is only touching the ball 10-15 times what is he worth?

The Demarco Murray fiasco in Philly last year seriously stopped the momentum RB's were gaining lately. After 3 horrendous RB drafts in 10', 11' and 12' that yielded 1st round busts like Mark Ingram, Jahvid Best, C.J Spiller, David Wilson and Trent Richardson, no NFL team chose a runner in the 1st round for 2 straight drafts. But, in the 13' and 14' drafts some really impactful players emerged in the 2nd round and beyond.

10 years from now I think people will be shocked to think that guys like Devonta Freeman (4th), Le'Veon Bell (2nd), Eddie Lacy (2nd) and Latavius Murray (6th) were not 1st round draft picks. Sure, every now and then a guy like Murray emerges from a late round at any position. But Bell, Lacy and Freeman would all be 1st rounders' 15 years ago.

So as average salaries and draft positions started to drop for RB's, a resurgence started in 2014. The aforementioned Demarco Murray had a breakout season. He broke Emmitt Smith's single season franchise record for yardage. That's no joke. Murray was allowed to hit the free agent market and he set the market with a HUGE contract delivered by the Philadelphia Eagles. He set the number, and other backs benefited financially. Demarco went on to do absolutely nothing in the city of brotherly love in 2015. That has ramifications across all 32 teams as we close in on free agency this offseason.

For guys like Forte, Ivory, Martin and Morris it may feel like they just stepped in a time machine. No, it's not heading back to 1985 with Doc Brown, Marty Mcfly and Walter Payton. No DeLorean or franchise player pay checks for these guys. This time machine is heading to 2012, and GM's will be very reluctant to hand over the big dollars to backs with millage on them.

However, considering all of the productive, dynamic backs who have emerged from the draft in the last few years... including a top 10 pick last year winning OROY and setting the league on fire, I think teams will continue to increase the draft stock of young backs.

I am not a fan of old free agent RB's. Period. They all have millage and they are all available for multiple reasons. None of them good. I think you have to build your backfield through the draft. And I think a true feature back is very, very valuable. There are at least 2 or 3 feature backs in this draft. I will go into specific names & analysis in the next few weeks, but I will say this right now... I think only 1 RB will go in the first round this year.

That means some team, maybe more than one, will land a Le'Veon Bell type back in the 2nd round or beyond. A guy with the speed, vision, hands, and fire in his belly who can win games for you by running inside the tackles, getting outside and turning the corner, catching passes and pass blocking... what's that worth? In my eyes it's unquestionably worthy of a 1st round pick.

-Jay Wagner

#NFLWithdrawal

The 2015 NFL season has come to an end. #SB50 is already fading into our memories, and who amongst us could have predicted that Peyton and his Broncos would win it all? No one, not even the proud residents of #BroncoCountry would have laid down big dollars last year at this time. Very few would have bet on #18 and his team in August or early September. And even in late December you would have been hard pressed to find an endorsement outside of Colorado.

But here we are, and this is why we love the NFL. Back when Brock was behind center and Peyton was out indefinitely (which was only like 6 weeks ago BTW) you wouldn't have believed this script. Peyton making a comeback and hoisting the Lombardi this year was about as believable as Joe Montana stepping out of one of their joint Papa Johns commercials and doing it himself. In my last post I was clear about what I felt this win would mean to Manning's legacy. He's now in the discussion with Montana and Brady for the 'GOAT'. I know it's crazy that one game can be so impactful on a career that has spanned nearly 2 complete decades, but it is. Congrats to a guy who is a class act.

As the gold colored confetti fell, and John Elway basked in the gleam of the bright lights that were reflecting off of the Lombardi Trophy, an all too familiar feeling of loss washed over me. I realized that I had just finished watching the last meaningful pro football game I would see for over 7 months. Oh, the horror.

So #NFLwithdrawal begins to set in, but the offseason is not all bad. For the fans of teams like the Browns, Jets, Jags, Titans and Dolphins this is the time of year when they are full of hope. That genius new coach will change the culture. That bluechip, top 5 draft pick will be the missing piece. That overpriced free agent will bring with him the secret to wining that has been so elusive.

That's the big three storylines of every offseason: Coaching changes, Free Agency and the Draft.

We have seen some interesting head coach hires in the past few weeks. Doug Peterson returns to Philly and the organization has been very clear that they are not giving Bradford a big money contract or using the franchise tag on him. They are also interested in reversing the ill-advised trade that sent Nick Foles to the Rams. It's impossible for anyone to be able to judge who or what Peterson is without his mentor Andy Reid. Who knows if he can create a winning culture, who knows if he's an offensive genius?? All we do know is coach Reid must be feeling vindicated after watching 2 things: 1) the guy who took his job get run out of town and 2) the Eagles owner come crawling back to hire Reid's protégé. You can not see if he's smiling under that porn stash, but trust me, he is.

By far the best hire of the new HC's was Hue Jackson in Cleveland. His staff is (or at least should be) every Browns fans wet dream. Jackson, Pep Hamilton, Al Saunders and Roy Horton. Dude, how did that franchise land these guys?  Two years ago they fired a HC who had been employed with them for less than 365 days. The fall out was extreme. No one would touch that job and they ended up settling for a low level assistant coach from Buffalo Mike Pettine. He obviously was WAY over his head and the team floundered under his leadership. He was fired and with openings in Miami, Tennessee and Philly the Browns swing for the fences and land Jackson. I give Coach Jackson some real credit for taking the worst team in the league, in the same division as the team he just left. I believe that some franchise are simply snake bit, but with Hue in Cleveland and Todd Bowles currently turning the Jets around, maybe the respective curses on these teams (and their long suffering fans) are ready to be broken.

The hire that I take issue with the most is Adam Gase in Miami. This guy is just the latest Eric Mangini/ Rex Ryan, flavor of the month coordinator that caught the eye of Mike Tannenbaum. MR. T believes that good coordinators translate to good head coaches. He isn't bringing in a college guy, he isn't brining in a retread (meaning a guy who has previous HC experience like Shanahan). This situation in Miami is starting to look a lot like Mr T's time with the Jets. Gase is a young, smart boy wonder type coach (Mangini). He seems way over his head when listening to his introduction presser. He's getting saddled with a 100 million dollar underperforming, problem child diva in Suh, who is know for his bad attitude (Santonio Holmes). He also inherits a QB who hasn't been able to lead his team to the post season in 5 attempts (you know that saying: "6th time is the charm!") With no true general manager in place Gase will be the lightning rod for Tannenbaums's mistakes. At least the weather is nice and the OJ is fresh down there, because everything else in Miami is looking old, stale and way too familiar.

As for the other hires: Mularkey in Tennessee is just dumfounding. You had the #2 pick last year... you bring in a promising young QB... he looks like he has been prepared properly by the coaching staff in his first few games. So, you fire the HC and promote a guy who has been a total failure and he leads you to the worst record in the league. You now have the #1 overall pick in this years draft and desperately need something to excite your fans. So you keep the lame interim HC. What??? I don't get it.

Chip Kelly will never be a successful HC in this league. Here's the timeline for the powers that be in San Francisco. They stumbled through a few head coaches who were special (Nolan & Singletary), but just not elite. They land on Harbaugh... he turns the team around... they run him out of town... promote a homegrown, long time assistant coach who they groomed for years. He struggles year one, so they dump him. They decide to hire a coach who took a great young roster in Philadelphia and proceeded to decimate it in 3 short years, alienating the entire team... even the owner. He was run out of the locker room, not even allowed to coach the last game of the season. His system is proven to put the QB in unnecessary danger and runs the defense ragged. It doesn't work in the NFL. Period. Signing any free agents will be next to impossible especially defensive players. So, yes... I think this was absurd as well. You have a pair of ego's now joined together in SF who both separately ruined franchises who were on the rise. Maybe they deserve each other.

Dirk Koetter and Ben McAdoo were both offensive coordinators who slid into the spots of the fired head coaches who hired them. And make no mistake, Coughlin was fired in NY. The Giants sent a clear message as an organization... Tom Coughlin was the problem. They retained a large portion of the coaching staff including both coordinators and they retain the GM. This is a team that has simply looked bad for 4 consecutive years. I am not a believer in half measures. That team needed a complete reboot, but the Mara's don't like the idea of that. I think they feel it gives off the impression that things are out of control. Newsflash, things are out of control with Big Blue.

Koetter and the whole situation in Tampa is confusing to me. Just like Mariota in Tennessee, Winston will be playing for his 2nd HC in 2 years. Not a formula for success. Why any franchise would let a HC use a top 5 draft pick if they are on the hot seat is beyond me. I'm not saying that the HC's in Tampa and Tennessee were the decision makers for their teams in last years draft, but both guys had a lot of say in who was picked with those ultra valuable top 2 spots.. It's no wonder these teams always seem to appear at the top of the draft every year.

The NFL combine is just over one week from today and free agency starts not long after on March 9th. Only one team will reach the mountain top in 2016, and the race starts now! Gentlemen, start your engines...

-Jay Wagner

Super Bowl 50 Preview!

Here's everything you need to know when you hold court at your Super Bowl Party in a couple of days.

This year the #1 seeded team from each conference will face off. That's not very common, but there are some more interesting bullet points to keep in your back pocket when trying to sound like a real football expert this Sunday.

• Newton and Manning are both former #1 overall picks.
• They are also both former Heisman Trophy winners.
• Newton will most definitely win the MVP award Saturday night, so it's safe to say we will have two league MVP's facing off as well.
• Both head coaches are former players and have appeared in Super Bowl games (Rivera as a LB & Kubiak as a back up QB)
• Newton is the first QB in NFL history to ever pass for 30+ TD's and also Rush for 10 in a single season. (In case anyone asks why he's so special LOL)
• Thomas Davis, Panthers LB, will play in this game... 14 days after breaking his arm. Insane.
• Lady Gaga is singing the national anthem and Coldplay is the halftime performer. (Feel free to mute your television)
• Manning is the oldest QB to ever start a Super Bowl (39).
• If Manning retires after this game he will own most of the QB records imaginable, accept for an important one. He is currently tied for most wins with Favre. So there would be some incentive for him to return in 2016.

Here are some of my predictions for the big game:

MVP candidates include obvious players like the two QB's, Von Miller, and Luke Kuechly. Defensive players very rarely get the MVP nod in the big game, but there are some real game changers in this one. My dark horse MVP winner is Ted Ginn Jr. He makes big plays offensively, including running the ball on reverses, but he also returns kicks. He could feasibly have a TD rushing, passing and on special teams. Keep an eye on the resurrected WR who had previously been labeled as a first round bust.

I  predict a defensive battle in about 48 hours from now. Denver's offense has many more issues than the decline of Peyton. Demaryius Thomas has looked a lot more like a $700,000 receiver as opposed to a $70,000,000 one. CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have both been lack luster to say the least. The addition of Vernon Davis has been a complete waste of time. Feel free to point the finger at #18, but this offense has issues across the board.

So, nobody is predicting Denver to light up the scoreboard, not only because of the aforementioned issues, but also because of an outstanding Panther defense. As for the Panthers offense, they are dynamic. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league, which was a bit of a surprise to some. They have a couple of impactful rushers including Stewart, Tolbert and yes, Cam Newton. But, they don't have a #1 WR. Well, they do have one, but he's been on IR since the preseason. I like Brown, Cotchery and Ginn. I also like Olsen as a true clutch pass catcher. But, any of these guys can be handled one-on-one. That's a big advantage for Denver's defense.

Denver's D boasts the best pass rushing front 7 in the game. Looking back at their loss to Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season, they really struggled when they had to try to double and triple team Antonio Brown. The more players you have to commit to pass coverage the less you have rushing the passer. In this game Denver will be able to bring 5+ pass rushers on any and every play. Chasing down Newton is challenging enough, but getting him on the ground when you get there is a whole other task.

So with all of this being said, what is my final prediction for the Big Game #SB50 ???

I see a low scoring affair... but I think the Panthers pull it out. Overtime is a real possibility in this one.. but when it's all said and done I see 19-16 with both field goal kickers getting a heavy workload. Carolina's kicker is much more experienced. I wonder how much that plays an important role in this game.

One final prediction... and this is an aggressive one, Peyton gets pulled in the 2nd half in favor of Brock Osweiler. I HOPE I am wrong about this one, but if Peyton struggles the way I think he might, Kubiak will have no choice but to give the young gun a shot.

Enjoy the game!!!!!!!!!!!

-Jay Wagner