Labels

Monday, March 21, 2016

Carson Wentz vs. Jared Goff

Another fascinating year with 2 QB's at the top of draft boards everywhere. Both have pro's and con's, strengths and weaknesses, reasons to buy and reasons to pass. Manning/ Leaf... Luck/ RG III... Winston/ Mariota. There's been many, many QB's who have been paired up in draft debates over the years. And they become forever linked. Anyone can analyze these guys to death, but IMHO you have to take sides. You have to put your cards on the table and pick the guy you think is the top QB in this years draft.

There won't be any 1A/ 1B stuff on this blog. To quote the great Ricky Bobby: "If you're not first, you're last". Obviously they are both very talented. But I will put myself in the position of the team that will be on the clock with both QB's available. For whichever team ends up in that place they won't have the luxury of sitting on the fence, they need to make a choice. It looks like the first potential team that would pull the trigger on a QB would be the Browns at #2, but there is always the possibility of a team trading up with the Titans and leap frogging Hue Jackson in Cleveland.

Lets start our evaluation with the physical measurables:

Carson Wentz was 5' 8" and under 200lbs as a freshman in high school. He didn't start at QB until his senior year because of his undersized frame. Therefore he was not highly recruited, hence his landing spot in North Dakota. Today he is 6'5" and  237lbs. Absolutely a prototype frame for an NFL QB in this millennium.

Cal QB Jared Goff is 6'4" and under 220lbs. Adequate height for a pro baller, but I would prefer a bit more padding on a frame that tall. He weighed in at 215lbs at the combine, which seems to be his realistic weight. I think weight to height ratio is very significant considering the beating an NFL QB will take on a weekly basis. You simply need that natural padding. Another 15- 20lbs of muscle and natural growth over the next 2-3 years is very possible for Goff, so I am not holding it against him too much. But make no mistake, he does need to bulk up.

So we have established their overall frames and body size. Obviously Wentz is the winner in this comparison. There has been chatter about Goff's hand size measuring in at 9 inches. From what I understand 9" and above is acceptable for the NFL. I am not concerned with Goff's hand size and wouldn't factor it into the evaluation.

Next thing on my list is to consider the amount of starts and snaps each QB has had and the level of competition they have faced:

There is really no comparison in this department. Goff has nearly double the amount of starts (37 to Wentzs' 22) and Goff played consistently better competition. This is ultra significant, however Goff did struggle vs. some of his higher level competition. Wentz suffered a broken wrist early in 2015 so he missed a bunch of games. That should have given Goff a big advantage. However,Goff and his teammates had a tough 4 games stretch putting up 4 straight losses, including a 5 INT performance by Jared vs. Utah. This happened while Wentz was out injured. So When Goff had a golden opportunity to solidify his position as the #1 QB in this draft he came up short.  All that being said, not only does Wentzs' limited college playing time concern me, but as I mentioned, he also only started only one season in high school.

Next is the all important eye test:

Wentz has the bigger arm. He has one of the most natural throwing motions I have ever seen. Like most rookies these days he has limited experience behind center taking most of his snaps in the pistol or shotgun. But I have to mention his velocity again, it's as good as any QB in the league today. Arm strength isn't just about the long ball, but also the intermediate passes. Passing windows in the NFL are very tiny. Young QB's are always shocked by this fact. There's no way to prepare for it, there is no substitute for real game experience. Having the cannon to be able to compensate for the huge jump in talent and speed Wentz will be facing in the pro's will help his transition.

All we really have to evaluate Wentz is the fact that he looks like as natural a passer as you could ever hope to find. With Goff we can dig a bit deeper considering the larger sample size and the competition he played against. That alone is an advantage for Goff. He didn't always play perfect, but we can break down some film and compare his performance against high profile defenses with that of various other QB's. When Goff is on, he's on. His footwork, anticipation and overall velocity looks above average when he is in rhythm. The problem is he has shown inconsistency with all 3 of those aforementioned attributes through out his larger sample size of film and starts at Cal.

One final thing to mention about the eye test between these two players is their ability to run the ball. This wasn't even a consideration 10 years ago. A QB's 40 time at the combine was usually as important as their eye color. But, it's 2016 and players like Wilson and Newton have changed the game. Both of these rookies are pretty quick, and both are elusive in the pocket. But my eyes tell me that Wentz will make an impact running the ball and Goff won't. Goff reminds me of Aaron Rodgers when it comes to his ability to make plays with his feet. He  CAN do it, but it won't be something that makes him a game changer. Carson is not only quick, but he's a big boy. 237lbs coming at you full speed will make most defensive backs think twice. In the redzone Wentz will be able to take advantage of designed QB running plays.

When factoring in the impact Wentz can make with his feet as well as his arm he gets the nod as the winner of the eye test. That's kind of surprised me considering how little film there is on him. I assumed it would be Goff before actually watching them.

Finally we consider the intangibles:

I couldn't find anything that really impacted either of these guys negatively off the field. No scandals, no shoplifting crab legs LOL. An interesting fact that stands out to me is that Wentz emerged as a top prospect in 2014. He was a top national prospect in a very small school. However, he was never selected as a team captain by his teammates. During the scouting combine on NFL Network Mike Mayock said "...when his teammates were asked to elect team leaders his name was never mentioned". That really is a sticking point for me. It's a real snub from the teammates of a guy who was obviously trying to go from North Dakota to the 1st round of the NFL Draft.

On the flip side Goff was a 2 time team captain, as you would expect. But there is more to evaluating intangibles than being elected (or not being chosen) team captain. I also like to watch TV interviews and press conferences. The NFL is an entertainment business first and foremost. A first round drafted NFL QB has to be savvy and confident in front of a microphone from day one. No question Wentz has the advantage here. Goff comes off like a college kid at the podium, and that's a concern if he ends up in a big media market. New York & L.A. are realistic landing spots for either of these QB's. The Rams and Jets need a long term solution at QB. They would both have to trade up to land either one of them, but it's still a possibility. I would have some questions about Goff handling the NY media, especially after a loss.

So I would rank the intangibles category at a tie.

So the final scoring is as follows:

Physical Measuables: Wentz
Starting Experince: Goff
Eye Test: Wentz
Intangibles: Tie

That's 2.5 for Wentz and 1.5 for Goff. Wentz has the edge on Goff when it comes to  natural abilities that you simply can't teach... size, speed, arm strength and innate media savvy. It's hard to say which one is a better leader in the locker room. Both of their coaches will do nothing but rave about how great they are because a top 5 drafted player helps their future recruiting abilities as a program. So, Carson Wentz is my choice as the best QB in this years draft. My cards are on the table.

Now for one final observation. Where would be the best possible landing spots for both of these guys?

I think Goff may actually get drafted higher than Wentz even though I feel Wentz is the superior prospect. Sadly NFL teams don't confer with me before they make their picks =(  I think that there is a real chance that not only could the Titans trade down, but The Browns and Chargers would also be open to moving down. The Titans and Chargers are obviously not looking for QB's in the 1st round, but the Browns may have interest in a QB who is slated to go later in the draft like Lynch or Hackenberg. They may want to horde some more picks by trading down and passing on both Goff and Wentz.

Before I go too far off the reservation with various trade scenarios, let me say that I think the best landing spot for both of these guys would be Dallas. It's the ideal situation for any rookie QB. You have outstanding offensive coaches, a bunch of weapons to throw to, the best young O-line in the league and a chance to sit and learn for a year or so. It's a formula for long term success. If I had to separate them and pick different teams I'd say Dallas for Goff and The Jets for Wentz. Wentz can handle that NY Media, he has some tremendous weapons of offense and an excellent OC in Chan Gailey. He may even be able to sit behind Fitzpatrick his rookie year, if he resigns in NY. But, even if Fitz is gone in 2016 Wentz would have a chance to succeed with savvy veterans like Decker, Marshall and Forte on his side.

I could see the Browns taking Goff, which I think is a bad landing spot for him because of the lack of talent on the roster. That teams is perpetually "2 years away from being 2 years away" (from being relevant) LOL. The new coaching staff is a plus, but a rookie needs someone to throw the ball to and some protection in the pocket. However, if they are very high on both of these two QB's... or are willing to take Lynch later... I could see them trading with the Cowboys.

That would allow Dallas to take Goff at #2 and create the potential for Wentz to slip back to the Browns at #4. But it would also open a window for the Jets to offer up their #20 overall pick and combine it with Richardson or Wilkerson to convince the Chargers to give up their #3. They could leap frog the Browns (or the Cowboys if they stay put at #4) and land Wentz. If the Chargers stay put and Wentz is still available at #4 the Jets could offer that same package to move up to that spot. The Browns could possibly move down multiple times in the first round.

All that being said, I think the top 5 stays the same and Goff goes to the Browns and Wentz to Dallas. BUT.. if Ezekiel Elliot is available at #4 Dallas could.............. OK I'll stop the speculation there before my head explodes LOL!

-Jay Wagner

Sunday, March 6, 2016

How I would fix the biggest mess in the league: The 49ers

I wanted to lay out some of the core principals that I feel are universal when building (or rebuilding) an NFL franchise. So I thought, for fun, I would put myself in the shoes of an NFL owner. I picked the team that I think is the biggest mess in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers were on the right track for a number of years. Going back to the hiring of Mike Singletary as Head Coach. Singletary helped cultivate a culture of accountability that resonated into the next coaching staff led by Jim Harbaugh. The roster was built through the draft expertly over multiple years during both Singletary and Harbaugh's reign. Harbaugh built an outstanding coaching staff and the team went on a 3 year run (11', 12', 13') finishing deep in the playoffs and even playing the Ravens in the Big Game. They didn't bring the Lombardi home, but this was an amazing young, talented and hungry team. WAS.

So what happened? The Niners' 2014 season was one of the weirdest I have ever watched an NFL team have. It was like watching a car wreck, you couldn't look away from the horror. The GM and Head Coach let their ego's get in the way and Harbaugh coached the entire season as a lame duck. By the time it was all over young high level players like Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Anthony Davis inexplicably retired and turned their backs on this franchise.

The GM kept his job and promoted a long time assistant coach to the top spot. He handed Jim Tomsula a roster that could only be described as almost completely devoid of talent. I'm not trying to be overly dramatic here. Looking at this list of players was stunning. It was mostly comprised of 3rd string quality talent. Tomsula put up a sub .500 record and he was fired. A coaching staff with Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells on it (collectively) couldn't have got that group to 8-8. I'm not sure what Trent Baalke expected.

Baalke was given another swing at hiring a Head Coach and he chose the worst possible candidate... Chip Kelly. I am not going to go any further into my analysis of the state of the 49er's today. I simply don't like Kelly, and the team has a major problem on their hands with their high profile QB. Their 2016 season is already doomed... I want to start the day after the regular season ended.

Let's rewind to January 4th, If I was Jed York the first thing I would have done is fire Baalke. He was a part of basically destroying a great young team. His ego got in the way and his coaching hires and roster moves were terrible. At this point no respectable HC candidate wants to work for Baalke.

We will be cleaning house with me as the owner. We need a new GM, Head Coach and coaching staff. We need a franchise QB, and also need to fill holes all over the offense and defense. Complete rebuild.

My #1 choice for GM would be Eric DeCosta. He's the assistant GM for the Ravens. He has made it clear that he loves the owner and HC in Baltimore and intends to be Ozzie Newsome's successor. The Ravens are compensating him well, and he's going nowhere. So, my close #2 choice is Duke Tobin form Cincinnati. The Bengals have had the best draft classes for 5 years running. They found a franchise QB, a true #1 elite WR, O-line, D-line, a fast dynamic LB group and some outstanding Running Backs. They have also had 3 coordinators move on to head coaching positions in the past 3 years.

Tobin has been involved with all of this and has learned how to build a team from the inside out. He can cherry pick some front office and scouting department personnel from the Bengals. He will also have a strong say in the HC and coaching staff. Another important thing to keep in mind is the team that has drafted so well, for multiple years, will start to hit the wall salary cap wise. We are seeing some VERY talented, young players hitting the free agent market out of Cincinnati. Very similar state of affairs in Carolina.  They simply can't afford to keep everyone. Tobin knows what these guys are made of and can spent money with confidence.

With Tobin in place the next step is HC. Because you are going to be turning over a large portion of this roster it's an ideal situation to bring in a 1st time head coach. I do not like bringing in college coaches and throwing them directly into the top coaching spot in the pros. It works very rarely. I much prefer finding guys who know how the NFL works and how to deal with professional athletes.

Last year my number one candidate was Todd Bowles. He was obviously ready to take the next step. And his rookie year with the Jets was a resounding success no matter how you measure it. This year the guy who is the obvious stand out for me is Sean McDermott. I feel very confident that this leader has what it takes to create a culture of winning.

McDermott would almost definitely want to bring Eric Washington, the Panthers D-line coach with him as the new Defensive Coordinator. Washington is also ready to take the next step. As for offensive coordinator, it's important to think about what weapons are on the current roster and who may be available via free agency. Mobile QB's are obviously the new trend in the league. I need a guy who has worked with that type of offense. Pep Hamilton, a former 49er's QB coach and most recently offensive coordinator for Andrew Luck in Indy, is a guy who was scapegoated and fired after a strange, injury ridden 2015 season. He's an outstanding play caller and has a progressive modern approach.

To recap:

GM-Duke Tobin
HC- Sean McDermott
OC- Pep Hamilton
DC- Eric Washington

Now, to examine the roster. First things first, we need to address this Kaepernick catastrophe. He needs a change of scenery. I don't believe in him as a pocket passer and he is not a great leader. There are many ways to address this all important position. The scenario that I think could work is a straight up trade of Kaepernick for Ryan Tannehill in Miami. I know straight up trades are almost non-existent in this league, but last year we saw some blockbuster trades and I think this trend will increase.

Mike Tannenbaum in Miami is a true horse trader and he loves to make a splash. I think this could be a realistic trade. Tannehill is an amazingly athletically talented QB. He has never been used the right way. Pep would get this guy out of the pocket and could utilize some creative option style plays, taking advantage of Ryan's speed. The perfect guy to help this transition would be Panthers free agent Mike Tolbert. Hyde and Tolbert would be excellent in the backfield.

We have about 50 million in cap room right now, and we will need more to attract free agents to a team like this that is rebuilding. We are dumping Dorsey, Pears and Gabbert. That combined with sending Kap to south Florida will give us 15 million more dollars to spend. Tannehill brings an 11 million dollar number with him so we net 4 million, and every dollar counts.  I see us with 55 million to spend when free agency starts in March which makes us 3rd most in the league.

The free agents I would target would be:

Mike Tolbert HB/FB- Former Panther, McDermott knows him well, he does it all.
Bilal Powell HB- Great 3rd down back, fits perfect with Tolbert and Hyde.
Marvin Jones WR- Former Bengal, Tobin knows him well. Great #2
Jermaine Kearse WR- Stealing a division opponents weapon.
Ladarius Green TE- GREAT value, dynamic threat downfield.
Jared Cook TE- Outstanding blocker and receiver. Stealing another division opponent.
Alex Boone G (re-sign)- No brainer. Keep him
Andre Smith RT- Former Bengal, Tobin knows him.

Sean Smith CB- True #1 CB, huge boost to secondary.
Adam "Pac Man" Jones CB- True #2 CB, Tobin knows him. Short term fix
George Iloka SS- 6'4" defensive back. Another Bengal.
Bruce Irvin LB- Best pass rusher on the market. Completes a great LB squad, former division opponent
Greg Hardy DE- McDermott and Washington had a lot of success with this guy in Carolina.
James Laurinaitis ILB- former division opponent, adds great depth.

My free agent philosophy obviously revolves around landing known commodities by targeting players that have a connection to the GM and HC. I also like bringing in guys who come from division opponents. You are absorbing the talent they couldn't afford to keep.

In this draft I think a QB is necessary with the #7 overall pick. Jared Goff would be way to valuable to let pass. In round #2 the team should target Nick Martin the Center from Notre Dame. His brother Zack Martin transitioned very easily to the pro's and I think he will as well.

So the roster is shaping up like this:

QB: Tannehill, Goff and Thompson.
RB: Hyde, Tolbert and Powell
WR: Smith, Jones, Kearse, Ellington
TE: Green, Cook, McDonald
O-line: Staley, Boone, Nick Martin, Andre Smith .. ect

LB: Irvin, Bowman, Lynch, Brooks, Harold ...ect
D-Line: Armstead, Carradine and Hardy
Safety: Bethea and Iloka
CB: Smith, Pac Man, Brock and Johnson

Obviously all of the fee agents are speculation. But the most concrete part of this whole roster building scenario I laid out is the QB's. The 49er's are taking Goff. If they also traded for a veteran like Tannehill they are very safe. You need at least 2 options in this league at this position. You have both starter and back-up covered. This gives Goff at least a year to learn from the bench and if Ryan gets injured you still have a chance to win with the rookie. It would inspire your fan base having two legitimate guys in place at QB. And if Tannehill takes off and becomes the winner that he is capable of, then Goff will have tremendous trade value in 2017 and 2018.

This GM, coaching staff and roster could easily win 8 or more games in their first year, and that's in a very talented/ competitive division. The veteran free agents will help the team win now and give Tobin time to build a long term winner via the draft.

I'd say "you're welcome 49er's", but we don't have a time machine to actually rewind to Jan. 4th. Baalke is still your GM and Kelly is your coach. I don't have a dog in this fight, and I would be very happy to be wrong about SF's impending disastrous 2016 season. But I don't think I am.

-Jay Wagner

Are WR's the hottest commodity this offseason?

It's all about supply and demand. Usually QB's are the most scarce position supply-wise. Starters are near impossible to find, and quality back-up's are also elusive. For the past few years WR's have been bountiful. Guys like Brandon Marshall available via trade (for only a 5th rounder!?!). Guys like Eric Decker and Jeremy Maclin via free agency. And, countless players like Beckham Jr. and Amari Cooper from the draft. Historically speaking, when a certain position is very deep in the draft, especially for multiple years, the well usually starts to run dry. The 2016 draft is certainly leaving NFL GM's very thirsty when scavenging for pass catchers.  

On the free agent front there also isn't any true #1's out there, especially since Alshon Jeffery was just franchised by the Bears. We will take a look at the best of what's around in a moment, but suffice it to say, the supply is limited. So the Next obvious question revolves around the demand. If the market was plentiful in 2014 and 2015 maybe there isn't much demand in 2016. Of coarse we know that's ludicrous. This is a passing league, so no team every has enough high end pass catchers or pass rushers.

Young players like Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry and Amari Cooper all need a partner in crime to try and alleviate some of the pressure and coverage they are saddled with every Sunday. So even the teams that drafted the above mentioned playmakers are in the market for a top WR, not to mention those teams who lack a true #1.

And let's not forget the fact that one of the best WR's in the league is prematurely retiring. Megatron has one foot out the door and doesn't look like he will be suited up in 2016. Detroit seems to have that effect on legends SMH.

Looking at the draft, I think there are two borderline 1st round picks. Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss, and Will Fuller the golden dormer. Treadwell has pedestrian size and speed, but outstanding hands and elusiveness. He's very instinctive. Will Fuller is simply a burner. I see him as a one trick pony. They both could be game changing sidekicks to established NFL game changers.

I would love to see the Giants land Treadwell. He's the perfect one two punch with Beckham and he is coming from Eli's alma mater, so he has probably followed his college career. However, the Giants draft way too high in the 1st to take him or any other WR in this draft. Fuller is scary fast and you can't teach speed. Teamed up with Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin, Fuller could be a lethal weapon. If he lasted until the end of the 1st round Carolina would be nuts to pass on him. He could become their younger, more reliable Ted Ginn Jr.

I am sure there is at least one or two more impactful sleepers in this draft at wideout, but I am not sure who they are yet, so I will leave the draft prospects with just these two. Now we have to look at free agents. I will say this before I dive into that group... I am sure The Bears would sign and trade Alshon Jeffery. It's very uncommon for a team to trade a franchised player but it can happen. He is a true #1 and the Bears have shown a willingness to dump any big name players as they focus on accumulating draft picks and building their squad that way.  Since the Patriots don't have a 1st rounder this year anyway, I think they should sacrifice their #2 and maybe a #5 and get Brady a weapon like he hasn't had since Randy Moss. Edelman, Jeffery and Gronk would be unstoppable.

Anyways, enough with the fantasy scenario's, lets move on to who is ready and waiting to be signed to your fav teams offense.

Here are my top 5 free agent WR's who will most likely NOT re-sign with their 2015 team:
  1. Marvin Jones
  2. Rishard Mathews
  3. Kamar Aiken
  4. Travis Benjamin
  5. Jermaine Kearse

It was hard to even come up with 5 solid options considering Benjamin is at least 50/50 when it comes to resigning with Hue Jackson in Cleveland. I think this ranking is fair based on: 1) talent 2) age and 3) production. However, I think the one guy from this list that could become a true #1 WR is Kearse from Seattle. He has made some HUGE grabs during his time in the Pacific Northwest, but he comes from an offensive system that simply doesn't produce heavily targeted superstars at the WR position. But with the right QB I think he could emerge as a top target.

If 90% of the teams in this league need a top flight WR, and it's obvious that the supply is short... then we can say that the early bird will get the worm in the 2016 offseason. I think Belichick should make a rare big splash and trade for Jeffery before the start of free agency on Wednesday. With all of the #Deflategate nonsense being stirred up again, that would shake things up in the AFC! #FreeBrady

-Jay Wagner

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Top 15 NFL Free Agents...

... that will actually hit the free agent market. Guys like Fitzpatrick, Fleener, Osweiler and Lamar Miller are all impactful players who have very little chance of playing for a different team in 2016 than they did in 2015. So, they are a non-story for me.

Here are my Top 15 players who can be acquired with just a large sum of money. No draft pick needed, no trade scenario. Just write the check and you have a game changer.

  1. Mario Williams: This guy will most likely sign in Philly and reunite with Jim Schwartz. He still has 3 to 4 more years of double digit sack production left. I don't buy the rumors that he doesn't love football. I think Rex Ryan just didn't know how to use him, or didn't care about putting his players in the best position to succeed. However, if he isn't especially passionate about football I'd look to a guy like Julius Peppers. He has that same label, and he is still a game changer. Physical Freak, Veteran, Savvy, Durable and a bit of a chip on his shoulder after being cut. I'll take him!
  2. Alex Mack: Rarely does as guy this good at such a key position hit the market. I think of all of the young QB's around this league that could benefit from a Center like this.
  3. Matt Forte: He only has two years left, but most franchises aren't looking very much farther down the road than that anyway. It's a win now league, and Matt can help any team do that. As long as the contract only guarantees money for the first two years you're golden!
  4. Malik Jackson: I'm on the fence here, because obviously Elway is going to do everything possible to keep him. I just don't thin he has the cash to do it. It will come down to keeping Osweiler or Jackson, and the QB will usually win out I that scenario. If they decided to keep the D-linemen over the 6'8" QB then I would put Brock in this slot.
  5. Kelechi Osemele: He's an impact run blocker, he will help any team, he's not elite enough for the Ravens to break the bank, and Baltimore is cash strapped anyway.
  6. Sean Smith: He's 28 years old and could be heading to his 3rd team. Reminds me of Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie 2 years ago. I think this is the only true #1 CB on the market, so he easily makes the top 10.
  7. Damon Harrison: Maybe the best 3-4 Nose tackle in the entire league. The Jets have made a huge mistake IMHO picking Wilkerson over 'Big Snacks"... considering the embarrassment of riches they already have at the DE position. Harrison is a 3 to 4 year elite starter on your teams D-line. Get ready to get paid big man.
  8. Richie Incognito: He has major issues. There's no way around it. However, he paid a huge price for being a douche of epic proportions. He knows he has a few big money years left. He may be a terrible human, but I don't think he's dumb. He knows that he has to be a choir boy, because one more public relations blunder and he's done. I'd give him a 3 year deal with a 4th year club option for 7 to 8 million a year. And that contract would have lots of language regarding behavior to protect the franchise.
  9. Ladarius Green: I think a team like the NY Giants or New York Jets could greatly benefit from signing this guy. He was caught in Antonio Gates shadow for too long. This is a guy who can have a massive impact on a team for a very fair price. Maybe the best value on the market right now.
  10. Bruce Irvin: The Wilson, Sherman Thomas contracts are going to yield some outstanding free agents for the rest of the league. The Seahawks simply can't keep everyone. I can think of at least 16 teams that could really benefit from his services. If I was his agent I'd be holding out for a lot of guaranteed money.
  11. Doug Martin: He's be top 3 on my list if it wasn't for his durability issues. I like everything about him on the field. I'd go as far as to say he may be a top 5 back in this league... talent wise. But he is fragile. He's coming off of a monster contract year. And he plays one of the most abused positions in pro football. It's hard to see how a team doesn't overspend for this guy. But with his talent I couldn't list him any lower.
  12. Prince Amukamara: Not a #1 CB, but he is a playmaker, and he is savvy. If you need a book end to a big name shut down corner, he's a good Robin to your Batman.
  13. Marvin Jones: He can potentially play as a #1, #2 or slot WR. He can be a game changer anywhere. He never posted a 1,000 yard season, but I think the best of Jones lies ahead. In free agency you pay for what's ahead, not what's behind. Love to see him paired up with Beckham in NY or Cooper in Oakland.
  14. George Iloka: 6'4" 225lb Strong Safety?? Need someone to shut down Gronkowski in the AFC East? Or Eifert in the AFC North? This guy is a prototype safety for the next generation. With the rise of superstar TE's we need more monsters like this talented defensive back. He may resign in Cincinnati, but my guess is he hits the market, so he made the list.
  15. Finally... do I go with Hardy or JPP? Both have a 50/50 chance of resigning with their 2015 team, and both have some significant baggage. JPP has a well publicized physical issue, and Hardy as some well publicized mental/ emotional issues. I'll go with Greg Hardy, because he is the definition of a game changer. He's the Charles Haley of this generation. Jerry Jones will make him an offer, but I think he hits the market and cashes an even bigger check. I just can't go all in with JPP because of that hand. It seriously limited him last season. I can't get past it.
-Jay Wagner