This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting day one's in the history of the NFL Draft. When there isn't a clear cut #1 QB... in a league that is so desperate for QB's… it can make for some crazy trades, pathetic reaches and knee jerk reactions.
The concensus top 10 include names like Garrett, Adams, Fournette, Lattimore, Thomas, Hooker, Howard, McCaffrey, Allen and Trubisky… with Garrett being tabbed as the #1 for at least the last 2 months. Now, 24hrs before the Browns turn in their first card the rumor mill is churning out stories about Trubisky rocketing up Coach Jackson's draft board.
No matter how these first 32 picks pan out one thing is for sure: this should be some gripping prime time TV.
The real story line to me is how prevalant the baggage is that the bluechip prospects bring with them to Philly this weekend. Character concerns, off the field issues, failed drug tests and very significant medical concerns. I think this first round is best compared to a minefield.
I am especially put off by guys who can't stay healthy in college. The players are only going to be faster and hit harder in the pros, so if you can't stay on the field as an underclassmen I don't see why you will be available for 16 games at the next level. So guys like Lattimore and Fournette are off my board in the 1st round, not to mention in the top 10.
My definition of a top 10 pick is a guy who can start day one, who can be a 10 year starter and can have a huge impact on the game week in and week out. JJ Watt, Julio Jones, Cam Newton and Von Miller are perfect examples of what a top 10 pick should look like.
Here are my top 10 in this years draft
Miles Garrett
Jamal Adams
OJ Howard
DerekBarnett
Mike Williams
Corey Davis
Christian McCaffery
DerekBarnett
Takkarist McKinley
Gareon Conley
In that order.
I wouldn't rank any of the QB's in the top 25, however I do recognize the raw talent that Trubisky brings to the table and I really like DeShone Kizer. They are the only two guys I would consider as 1st round prospects. However, neither are day one starters so I wouldn't consider them until pick 25 or later. Mahomes is a fun guy to watch and he has some upside, but I rank him as a late 2nd rounder. As for Watson… I don't like his build and he has a WEAK arm. 4th rounder IMHO, don't be shocked to see him do the Geno Smith slide to day 2 of the draft.
I always spend an extra few words about the Jets draft. They have the #6 overall pick and huge gaping holes at QB, #1 CB, TE and outside pass rusher. I think the Jets could build a whole new secondary in this one draft, and DB is the strength of this group of rookies. They already have 4 picks in the first three rounds including a top 6 in each. I think there are day one starters all through the first 3 rounds.
Moving down from 6 might seem like the logical goal. But that depends on who's still on the board at #6. If Adams and/ or Howard are still available I don't see how you pass on either. Trading down is very overrated IMHO. How many times in the past 10 years have we seen the Browns trade down and pass on guys like Julio Jones and Carson Wentz just to accumulate picks to waste on busts? It's not just about stockpiling picks, it's about what you do with them.
My top players for the Jets are Adams, Howard, McKinley, Williams and Barnett… again, in that order. They can stay put at #6 and land Adams or Howard (Adams is a long shot, but he may fall to Macc the way Williams did in 2015). They could trade down in the first round and still have a shot at the other 3 players I just mentioned.
The three guys I hope they avoid at all costs are Watson, Fournette and Lattimore.
As for predictions regarding trades, I usually avoid trying to play that guessing game. I do think that we could see some players with solid name recognition move to new zip codes this weekend. Beastmode has already been traded to The Raiders on draft eve. Some other guys that could be on the move are Sheldon Richardson, Malcom Butler, Jimmy Garoppolo, Richard Sherman & The Brockweiler.
Get your popcorn ready!
-Jay Wagner
