2009:
In 2009 I spent a lot of time narrowing down the players I felt were can't miss prospects. http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2009/04/with-17th-pick-in-2009-draft-ny-jets.html
I was right about guys like Clay Mathews, Jeremy Maclin, Robert Ayers and BJ Raji. All or any of these guys would have dramatically improved the Jets roster. Instead they went with Sanchez and Shonn Greene with their first 2 picks. YUCK. I was dead wrong about Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells. I was obsessed with Knowshon that year, and both of these highly touted backs fizzled out quick in the NFL. I was also off with Ziggy Hood and Kenny Britt, but they are both solid role players.
2010:
I started posting players who I think would not only be long tern impact starters but also the players who were surrounded by hype that I saw as busts. http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2010/04/final-draft-thoughts-and-perfect-spot.html
In 2010 I was in love with Demaryius Thomas, Jerry Hughes and Linval Joseph. All 3 of these guys have delivered on the pro level and signed big contacts after their original rookie contracts expired. Hughes looked like a real bust when he first landed in Indy, but after a trade and scheme change in Buffalo his star began to rise. I was dead wrong about Jimmy Clausen, Sergio Kindle and a WR named Mardy Gilyard. I thought Gilyard was going to be the next Wes Welker LOL. He just never showed anything in the NFL. I was also right about Joe Hayden, Bryan Bulaga and Nate Allen.
As for Busts I saw through the hype and called out Tebow, Taylor Mays, Jared Odrick and Jahvid Best. They were all 1st round busts. For some reason I was down on Eric Berry, who obviously turned out to be outstanding. I also called out Bradford and what a bad pick he would be #1 overall. As far as I am concerned I was right, but I guess the jury is still out on him for some people. I called him out for being made of paper mache. And he has proven that to be true.
2011:
This was a weird year when it came to my draft analysis because my blog focused on the Jets. Going into 2011 they had a pretty stacked roster and were drafting at the bottom of the 1st round because of an appearance in the AFCCG. So I paid little attention to the draft, especially since the Jets GM kept trading away picks like tic-tacs.
The guy I really liked for the Jets was Phil Taylor, because we had a big need on the D-line. The Jets took Wilkerson which was 'six of one half a dozen of another' IMO.
The one thing I was right about, well partially, was all of the hype surrounding garbage QB's that were predicted to go a the top of the draft. Gabbert, Ponder and Locker were all the definition of BUSTS, and I knew it. I also hated Cam Newton. I didn't like his personality or how his game would translate to the pros. However, he found an organization and coaching staff that figured out how to build an offense around him and now he's the prototype NFL QB. It took years, but he has won me over, I'm a fan.
2012, 13 and 14:
The jets were a mess and I started to lose interest. But...
2015:
... in 2015 The Jets hit the reset button and I dove back into the draft (with a shred of hope in my heart). http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2015/04/my-top-25-prospects-inthe-2015-nfl-draft.html
I really wanted Shane Ray with the #6 overall pick. I spent months talking about how this guy was the right fit for the Jets. Then his draft stock plummeted days before the 1st round began because of drugs. At that point I wanted the Jets to trade down. My top 5 were Fowler Jr, Leonhard Williams, Ray, Shreff and Kevin White. Well, 2 of these 5 never even saw the field their rookie year, but I still believe in Fowler and White. Somehow Williams slipped to #6 and the Jets snatched him up. That's a 10 year starter and I can't complain.
Some of the other players who I really liked and will watch closely in 2016 were Duke Johnson, Green-Beckham, Philip Dorsett and DE/OLB Owa Odighizuwa. I think by 2017 all of these players will be considered high quality early first round worthy players. All four showed some flashes in 2015 and they will continue to develop this year.
My interesting view was that Winston and Mariota would both be busts. I felt Winston was a prototype NFL passer, but would struggle with off the field issues. The on the field stuff has proven true. But the off the field concerns still remains to be seen obviously. I did rank h top 20, but I wouldn't have used the #1 overall on him.
Mariota was the exact opposite for me. His intangibles are extraordinary, but I didn't think his game could translate to the NFL. He proved me wrong year one, but one decent rookie campaign doesn't make a career. I am fascinated to see how NFL defenses play him now that they have a full season of film. I also have major health concerns regarding Mariota. I don't like his frame considering the abuse he will take as a mobile QB.
If Winston keeps his nose clean for the next 10 years, and Mariota stays healthy and continues to grow a s a pocket passer I will be happy to say I was wrong. But I still think that by 2018 we will be saying that these guys are the next Vince Young and Matt Leinart (and those guys didn't even go as high as famous Jameis and MM).
As for the Jets, Williams was a tough guy to pass on. They have an embarrassment of riches at the DE position and they also have so many needs that I couldn't help but take issue with the luxury pick in this spot. But who can deny this guys talent.
That being said, the day after the draft ended I went on record as saying that I would have taken Ereck Flowers in the 1st round and Green-Beckham instead of Devin Smith http://j-e-t-s-jets.blogspot.com/2015/05/maccs-1st-draft-is-in-books.html
Considering the recent retirement of left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson and the fact Devin Smith totaled 115 yards for the WHOLE 2015 season, Flowers and Green-Beckham would have been much better picks, and they may have helped the Jets get over the hump and make the playoffs last year. But what do I know =)
-Jay Wagner
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