The most interesting part of this offseason will be the sheer volume of 'name' NFL QB's that will be wearing new uniforms. This will be the biggest shake up of signal callers in recent history.
So.... let's start with who will (most likely) be changing zip codes in a few weeks.
Tony Romo
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Geno Smith
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jay Cutler
Colin Kaepernick
Tyrod Taylor
Sam Bradford
RG III
Mike Glennon
Case Keenum
And a few more long shots....
AJ McCarron
Blake Bortles
Alex Smith
Kirk Cousins
All 15 of these guys are relatively well known, and every one of them will be obtainable, via free agency or trade. Out of this list only FitzMagic, Geno-Coaster and RG III are probably going to be signed as obvious clipboard holders. The other dozen all have a shot at being a QB needy teams new field general.
Now, what teams fit the description as 'QB Needy"?
The Jets
The Browns
The Bills
The Texans
The Broncos
The Bears
The 49ers
And, if some of the above "long shot" QB's were unexpectedly traded or released we can add
The Jags
The Chiefs
The Redskins
If you are doing the math we have 11-15 name QB's (8-12 potential starters) available for 7-10 potential openings. What this means is that at least 2 to 3 teams that have either no identity or the wrong guy in the top spot will make the right call and land a new, legitimate starting QB. Wow, as if the NFL wasn't competitive enough.
AND... one thing to keep in mind, I haven't even mentioned the draft. I'm sure at least a few of these teams will fill their gaping hole behind center with a rookie. I haven't included the rookies in this discussion because I don't see a QB going in the top 10 of the draft, meaning there isn't a clear cut franchise QB in this draft. I'm sure that there is at least one future long term starting QB in this years rookie class, but who knows when they will come off the board. So I'll keep this post strictly to veterans.
The first thing to examine here when trying to guess who will land where is who will only be available via trade, because that's the shorter list. McCarron, Bortles, Garoppolo, and A. Smith will not be released. They only swap uniforms if another team puts compensation on the table. The next group of names are guys who have a small chance of being traded, but have a much greater chance of being released. That's Cutler, Romo, Taylor, RG III and Kaepernick. Next up is the non-restricted free agents: Fitz, Geno, Keenum, Glennon and Bradford. That leaves the one real wildcard Kirk Cousins. I just don't see the Redskins letting him play anywhere else in 2017 unless they get some-sort-of compensation. The franchise & trade option is very rare, but it could happen here.
All that being said, where do I see these happy wanderers landing? Here are my best guesses.
Romo- Jets
I see the star crossed "other" NY franchise giving up at least the #39 overall pick as well as possibly a player like Richardson to try and land Tony. He would create desperately needed buzz in JetsNation and he would sell a few jerseys. Considering Romo's age and durability issues only a desperate team looking to make a splash would take a flyer on him. And the Jets have little to no chance of landing any quality free agents, especially at the QB spot... so they would have to go the trade route as opposed to just waiting for him to be released. This team has a no identity at QB, a HC with one foot out the door, a no name OC, an owner who left the continent and an aging/ dysfunctional locker room. They have no choice but to make this move. And it will be a mistake.
Fitz- Vikings
I could easily see Minnesota bringing in 'the beard' to cover the first few games of the season if Bridgewater isn't ready to go opening day... which is a real possibility. Teddy's injury was severe and he may not be back until week 4 to 6. Fitz could keep the ship afloat with the support of that defense and Peterson running the ball. And most importantly he doesn't create the QB controversy that keeping Bradford does. If they are 100% sold on Bridgewater and want to ease his transition back as the starter Fitz is actually a better option than Bradford. That's a big 'IF'.
Garoppolo- Browns
They trade the #12 overall for the hottest trade bait on the market this offseason. Coach Jackson can't afford another 1 win season. He needs to show that this team is progressing. They blew the roster up last year and also traded down in the draft to accumulate more picks including the #12 overall. They sacrificed 2016, but they did even worse than anyone expected. They were dangerously close to 0-16. Jimmy G makes this team relevant instantly. A defensive game changer with the #1 overall pick and a few offensive playmakers via free agency and they might see 8-8 this year... which is a step in the right direction. Let me rephrase that. Technically 2-14 would be a step in the right direction... 8-8 would be a godsend to the fans in Cleveland. One side note, I think they find a way to keep RG III as well.
Cutler- Bills
He's really not a bad option if you consider that his current contract is cap friendly in 2017 & 2018 and almost none of it is guaranteed. I'd trade a 6th or 7th for him if I was in charge in western NY. However, they may wait for him to be cut. Either way I think they hand the reigns to this emo signal caller. Also, for the record, I think their best option is Tyrod, but it looks like he is out. One interesting fact about Cutler is that he has missed more games in the past 2 seasons than even Romo... which surprised me.
Kaepernick- Broncos
I think it's Lynch's team in 2017, but Kap would be a nice insurance policy in Denver. Supposedly Elway was very interested in trading for him last year. An incentive laden deal would be enough to lure Collin to the mile high city. Frankly I don't think he will have many other options considering his baggage.
Tyrod- Bears
As this game of musical chairs starts to play out Taylor and the Bears start to see themselves as being left standing alone... I think the powers that be in the windy city are happy to replace Cutler, who was as mobile as a statue in the pocket, with a young/ dynamic QB who has two seasons under his belt as a starter. And he will be substantially cheaper than Cutler was over the past few years. I think the ideal landing spot for Taylor would be the Jets, but that team is more interested in being on the back page of the NY Post than winning. So they go all in with Romo.
Bradford- Jags
I think Coughlin and Marrone know they have to win NOW and aren't a bit interested in the enigma that is Blake Bortles. They know that this roster is overflowing with young talent and they also know what they will get with Bradford. He's not an elite QB, but unlike Bortles or any rookie they could bring in, he is an open book and a proven commodity. So the next logical question is what happens with Bortles... right? Actually no. The next piece to this puzzle is:
Cousins- 49ers
Shanahan wants this kid. Period. He and new GM Lynch will participate in a tag and trade with the Redskins if it means getting their guy. And that's exactly what will happen. Once he lands in the Bay area they will find a way to get him under a long term contract. I think that the Skins' could get as high as the #34 overall pick for him. And that finally brings us back to Bortles.
Bortles- Redskins
I think Gruden can work wonders with Blake and he is much closer to a big armed, prototype QB that he covets than Cousins is. The fact is that Kirk was healthy for all of 2016 and so was most of the Redskins offense. And he simply didn't do enough to get to the post season or demand the long term contract that he wants. However, he has proven he can win. So, there is no way the Skins' will just cut him. He will be tagged by Washington no matter if he gets traded or stays. I think he's getting traded. That covers most of the big names and needy teams. All but one team. The Texans are in a bit of a pickle, to say the least. Osweiler has been a disaster. However, they have the best defense in the league and some very key playmakers on offense. They made it to the AFC divisional round and actually played well in Foxboro .... all with NO LEADER AT QB. They are the definition of "one player away".
Romo would be an interesting option for so many reasons, but they already have a ton of cash committed to Brock and no way out of that contract. I also could see Tyrod having great success there, but the Bears will have more money to offer and a guaranteed starting job. So that leaves...
Mike Glennon- Texans
He's a logical reasonably priced option to compete with Brock and Savage. The Texans have had a crowded, convoluted QB meeting room every since Billy B took over as head coach. 2017 won't be any different. For the record I have zero faith in any of these 3 QB's.One final thought. I see AJ McCarron and Alex Smith staying put. However, I think they are two of the most valuable guys on this overall list. AJ has tremendous upside and intangibles.. and I think Alex Smith could step into the Jets, Broncos or Jags and easily get them into the playoffs. I used to be a real Alex Smith hater, but in 2016 I saw a different guy. He was letting the ball fly and playing with fire when the game was on the line. Frankly it's shocking to me how much his name has been thrown around as trade bait.
One thing is for sure. The next few weeks will not be boring in the NFL.
-Jay Wagner
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