What we do know is every team needs a few solid ones in 2016. Running back by committee doesn't mean that ANY 2 or 3 backs can be thrown back there and you'll be fine. Nor does it mean that 3 average backs equals out to 1 stud/ game changer from previous era's.
So the question is twofold: A) How high is too high to draft a RB, and B) How much is too much to pay a high profile free agent RB? Doesn't it seem like this part of the NFL game should be simple?
This whole league was built on handing the ball to a fast, powerful back with vision who looks for contact, but can make you miss. The NFL used to look much different 50+ years ago. 11 men lined up, they blocked, they collided violently & deliberately and they methodically moved the chains. It was a game of will... gritty, bloody and triumphant.
Today's NFL is about passing the ball down the field. The amount of rules that have been developed in the past decade to protect passers and pass catchers is crazy. The league protects what they value. Running backs aren't as fragile in the eyes of the NFL rule makers apparently. I'm not sure about this, but I think it's still legal to clothesline RB's Chuck Bednarik style.
There has been a clear shift in philosophy regarding rotating in 2 or even 3 backs as opposed to giving one stud 20, 25 or even 30 carries. Sure, it makes sense on a lot of levels, but if your featured back is only touching the ball 10-15 times what is he worth?
The Demarco Murray fiasco in Philly last year seriously stopped the momentum RB's were gaining lately. After 3 horrendous RB drafts in 10', 11' and 12' that yielded 1st round busts like Mark Ingram, Jahvid Best, C.J Spiller, David Wilson and Trent Richardson, no NFL team chose a runner in the 1st round for 2 straight drafts. But, in the 13' and 14' drafts some really impactful players emerged in the 2nd round and beyond.
10 years from now I think people will be shocked to think that guys like Devonta Freeman (4th), Le'Veon Bell (2nd), Eddie Lacy (2nd) and Latavius Murray (6th) were not 1st round draft picks. Sure, every now and then a guy like Murray emerges from a late round at any position. But Bell, Lacy and Freeman would all be 1st rounders' 15 years ago.
So as average salaries and draft positions started to drop for RB's, a resurgence started in 2014. The aforementioned Demarco Murray had a breakout season. He broke Emmitt Smith's single season franchise record for yardage. That's no joke. Murray was allowed to hit the free agent market and he set the market with a HUGE contract delivered by the Philadelphia Eagles. He set the number, and other backs benefited financially. Demarco went on to do absolutely nothing in the city of brotherly love in 2015. That has ramifications across all 32 teams as we close in on free agency this offseason.
For guys like Forte, Ivory, Martin and Morris it may feel like they just stepped in a time machine. No, it's not heading back to 1985 with Doc Brown, Marty Mcfly and Walter Payton. No DeLorean or franchise player pay checks for these guys. This time machine is heading to 2012, and GM's will be very reluctant to hand over the big dollars to backs with millage on them.
However, considering all of the productive, dynamic backs who have emerged from the draft in the last few years... including a top 10 pick last year winning OROY and setting the league on fire, I think teams will continue to increase the draft stock of young backs.
I am not a fan of old free agent RB's. Period. They all have millage and they are all available for multiple reasons. None of them good. I think you have to build your backfield through the draft. And I think a true feature back is very, very valuable. There are at least 2 or 3 feature backs in this draft. I will go into specific names & analysis in the next few weeks, but I will say this right now... I think only 1 RB will go in the first round this year.
That means some team, maybe more than one, will land a Le'Veon Bell type back in the 2nd round or beyond. A guy with the speed, vision, hands, and fire in his belly who can win games for you by running inside the tackles, getting outside and turning the corner, catching passes and pass blocking... what's that worth? In my eyes it's unquestionably worthy of a 1st round pick.
-Jay Wagner
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