Jimmy Johnson once said "Having an elite QB used to be an important thing, now it's the only thing". That being said, obviously a QB needs talent around him to succeed. But if that single piece of the puzzle is missing, forget about being relevant in todays NFL.
Take the 2015 Rams as a perfect example. At this time last year they were finalizing a trade for Nick Folk. I thought Folk was the best QB available last offseason. He was way better than any free agents and far ahead of any potential rookies. So, via trade, the Rams made the move they felt was best for them. It turns out that he was a poor fit for their system.
The trade that was much more effective, and received virtually no media attention, was a 7th round pick that was sent from NYC down to Houston. The Jets received the services of Ryan Fitzpatrick in return and he was a better fit. I can't say I think he's a better player than Foles, but with the talent surrounding him and a play caller who he was very familiar with, he put up the best season of his journeyman career.
The Rams have one of the most talented/ young defenses in the game, an outstanding veteran coaching staff and the OROY at the RB position. But, without the right guy behind center they were mediocre at best.
So in the next few weeks HUGE free agent contracts will be handed out and we may even see a few blockbuster trades like we did last year. But I want to focus on the new faces in new places who will be wearing those fancy red jerseys during practice sessions that indicate "DO NOT TOUCH"... the QB's.
Colin Kaepernick is the name that has been in the headlines throughout the NFL combine this past weekend. The 49er's GM and head coach both came out and said that they want Kap to stay in SF, they think he's a good fit for their new offense and that Kaepernick feels the same. They even used the cliché expression "on the same page".
Inexplicably, only hours after Chip Kelly's press conference, Kap's agent releases a statement demanding a trade. This is terrible for everyone involved. You can't have this kind of chaos with this ultra-important member of your franchise. If a QB with #7's skill set doesn't want to play for Kelly I can only imagine how the defensive players must be feeling. None-the-less, it's hard to see how Colin plays in SF in 2016. The question is where would he fit the best?
First you have to examine if he would accept being a back up. For example, would he consider going to a team like New England where he would sit for a year or two and potentially take over? Brady will be 40 when Colin is 30. Kap obviously needs some time to improve as a pocket passer. He would also be backing up an "old" QB. The chances Tom terrific goes down and Colin steps in increase as Brady ages. I don't think he would see this as an ideal scenario, but backing up and old guy like Brady or even Tony Romo in Dallas may be the best for his long term development.
Instead I am sure he would desire a spot where he would be the starter from day one. There is more than one team that has the right conditions for Collin to step in and start. I can't comment regarding how interested any of these following teams may be in acquiring him, but I can say that he is better than what they already have.
The teams that I think WILL be in the conversation are the Broncos, Rams, Texans and Browns. The team that I think SHOULD be in the conversation is the Dolphins. But I will touch on that in a moment, because I know it's unlikely. Lets start with the 4 prime candidates. If the Broncos can't sign their first choice for the 'hometown discount' Elway is begging for, their next best option is Kaepernick. I assume this would also be his most preferred landing spot, but what would Elway give up via trade for him?
The Rams simply need a recognizable name to sell some tickets and jerseys. The Texans have been riding the QB carousel more than any other team for the last few years, so obviously they would be players. And finally, Hue Jackson desperately needs to start this new era in Cleveland with a proven winner leading his offense. The idea of Jackson's ability as a QB 'whisperer' & an offense designer combined with Kap's talent is very enticing to any football fan. But Hue has the #2 overall pick and his choice of bluechip QB's waiting for him at the end of April, so I don't see it happening.
The least likely option would be an idea that I had for a trade that would help 2 high profile players and 2 struggling franchises. Ryan Tannehill has been the face of the Miami Dolphins for 4 years. He's a former first round QB that hasn't been able to get his team to a playoff birth, not to mention a playoff win. He has been inconsistent and seems to shrink in big games where you would need to see him rise up. However, he has shown that he is a serviceable starter (which half of the teams in this league lack) and I don't think he has ever been used properly. Ryan is a former WR with outstanding athleticism. He is the prototype QB for Chip Kelly's offense.
Swapping Kaepernick and Tannehill would be a win-win for both players and teams. Tannehill and Kap both need a change of scenery. If Kelly has any chance of succeeding in his new position he needs a QB that fits his system properly and who can run it with out limitations. Unlike Foles, Sanchez and Bradford, Ryan can be as dynamic as Mariota was in Oregon.
Adam Gase orchestrating an offense with Colin, Jarvis Landry and Lamar Miller (who needs to be a top priority as a resigning) could make some serious waves in the AFC East. Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick are way too familiar with the offensive weapons that occupy their division. Kap and Gase would shake things up. So, that's my 2 cents on Kaepernick.
Other QB's who may find themselves in new zip codes include free agents like Fitzpatrick, Osweiler and Bradford. Also some possible trade bait QB's include Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Mark Sanchez, AJ McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Nassib and of coarse the one and only RG III. One name not mentioned here is the soon to be released Jonny Manziel. I don't think he will be on a roster in 2016, sadly.
I just mentioned 11 of the top candidates who would and could be available to be your favorite teams new field general. I will rank them based on overall talent, and next to their name list the team that I feel is the best place for them in 2016. In some cases it will be their 2015 team. I am not factoring durability into this ranking. If I was Bradford and RG III would be at the very bottom.
- Bradford- Eagles
- Osweiler- Rams
- Foles- Kansas City
- RG III- Texans
- Fitzpatrick- Jets
- Sanchez- Eagles
- Glennon- Cowboys
- Mettenberger- Chargers
- Garoppolo- Patriots
- McCarron- Browns
- Nassib- Giants
Now for some explanation.
Bradford can fit the Eagles, Rams, Texans or Browns. I think he should stay put for 3 main reasons: the new coaching staff will simply use him better than Kelly did, the Eagles will pay him what the other 4 teams I listed will, and he's a well polished pro when it comes to dealing with the media. Philly is a HARD place to be a franchise QB. He reminds me of Eli Manning who handles the NY media so well. He won't be rattled by the inevitable boo's.
The 'Brockweiler" should not stay in Denver. He probably will, but he needs to cash the biggest check possible. The Rams are probably more interested in Peyton, but I think he's ready to retire. With an elite young runner behind him and a defense almost as good as what he has in Denver I think Brock can do well. Either way, L.A. is where the cash is.
Nick Foles had a significant injury in 2014 and then was discombobulated in 2015. But I remember the guy I saw in 2013. This guy has the tools. He needs to hit the reset button and go home to the guy who hand picked him in the draft, Andy Reid. Alex Smith has been serviceable, I'm sure Andy is glad he traded for him. But he proved last year that he is not wired for the playoffs. Foles is 26 and can afford to sit for a year or so waiting for Smith to peter out. His contract is also not prohibitive for a back up. They will take a 4th or 5th rounder for him.
RG III is very talented and he should be chomping at the bit to get back into a starting role. I like the whole culture in Houston and if Hoyer could lead them to the postseason on the shoulders of JJ Watt and Mr Hopkins, RG III could take them to the next level. I'd also throw Doug Martin into the mix. Houston needs to trade a 7th round pick for him as long as he is all in and willing to structure a fair contract. Why let him hit the market and possibly get caught in a bidding war?
Fitzpatrick would be nuts to leave NY, they will pay him fair money and those WR's and offensive coordinator are the perfect fit for him. It will be short money, but this journeyman needs to stay put.
Sanchez needs to be in a situation where he is backing up a fragile starter. This gives him the best chance to get back on the field. Bradford is that guy.
Mike Glennon is the perfect fir for Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett. Trade a mid-round pick for a young gun with a cannon arm. This whole story about Jerry Jones saying Romo is their starter for 4 or 5 more years is nuts. He knows Romo is probably gone by 2017, 2018 the latest. He's trying to defelect attention from them taking a QB with the #4 overall pick. It amateurish IMHO, and no NFL GM is buying it. But, picking a QB with a pick that high and benching him year one (which would be the case in Dallas) is a waste of a top 5 pick. There are WAY too many holes to fill on that team. Drafting and benching a top 5 draft pick is a luxury move, one that Jones can't afford (something he's not used to hearing LOL). Brining in Glennon gives them an insurance policy for Romo in 2016, a potential starter in 2017 and allows them to take a RB or a pass rusher with that high pick.
Mettenberger needs to get out of Tennessee. He has no chance of seeing the field. Backing up an old QB is the perfect spot for him right now. Why not Rivers in San Diego? The Saints and Pats would be good fits as well. Garoppolo and Nassib also need to be in the same scenario as Mettenberger. They are currently in those spots, so I wouldn't seek a trade.
That leaves AJ McCarron. He's in a tough spot. Backing up a QB in his prime. He looked good in my eyes last year as a relief pitcher for the injured Dalton, and he did enough to win that playoff game vs. Pittsburgh. His stock is high right now. He's may be more of a penny stock than a bluechip, but at least he's on the radar. Lets say Dalton is perfectly healthy for the next 2 years.. McCarron becomes the next Jimmy Clausen. Also factor in his offensive coordinator taking a head coach position with a QB needy team. This is his time to shine. His agent should be pushing this move. If Jackson believes in this kid the Browns could trade down from the #2 spot and still land Paxton Lynch in the second half of the first round. Hard to see the Texans not being interested in that trade if they could move up and land a guy like Wentz or Goff.
Lots of decisions to be made over the next 2 months. The moves that are made (or not made) regarding the QB spot can have ramifications that effect franchises for years.
-Jay Wagner
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