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Sunday, March 6, 2016

Are WR's the hottest commodity this offseason?

It's all about supply and demand. Usually QB's are the most scarce position supply-wise. Starters are near impossible to find, and quality back-up's are also elusive. For the past few years WR's have been bountiful. Guys like Brandon Marshall available via trade (for only a 5th rounder!?!). Guys like Eric Decker and Jeremy Maclin via free agency. And, countless players like Beckham Jr. and Amari Cooper from the draft. Historically speaking, when a certain position is very deep in the draft, especially for multiple years, the well usually starts to run dry. The 2016 draft is certainly leaving NFL GM's very thirsty when scavenging for pass catchers.  

On the free agent front there also isn't any true #1's out there, especially since Alshon Jeffery was just franchised by the Bears. We will take a look at the best of what's around in a moment, but suffice it to say, the supply is limited. So the Next obvious question revolves around the demand. If the market was plentiful in 2014 and 2015 maybe there isn't much demand in 2016. Of coarse we know that's ludicrous. This is a passing league, so no team every has enough high end pass catchers or pass rushers.

Young players like Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry and Amari Cooper all need a partner in crime to try and alleviate some of the pressure and coverage they are saddled with every Sunday. So even the teams that drafted the above mentioned playmakers are in the market for a top WR, not to mention those teams who lack a true #1.

And let's not forget the fact that one of the best WR's in the league is prematurely retiring. Megatron has one foot out the door and doesn't look like he will be suited up in 2016. Detroit seems to have that effect on legends SMH.

Looking at the draft, I think there are two borderline 1st round picks. Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss, and Will Fuller the golden dormer. Treadwell has pedestrian size and speed, but outstanding hands and elusiveness. He's very instinctive. Will Fuller is simply a burner. I see him as a one trick pony. They both could be game changing sidekicks to established NFL game changers.

I would love to see the Giants land Treadwell. He's the perfect one two punch with Beckham and he is coming from Eli's alma mater, so he has probably followed his college career. However, the Giants draft way too high in the 1st to take him or any other WR in this draft. Fuller is scary fast and you can't teach speed. Teamed up with Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin, Fuller could be a lethal weapon. If he lasted until the end of the 1st round Carolina would be nuts to pass on him. He could become their younger, more reliable Ted Ginn Jr.

I am sure there is at least one or two more impactful sleepers in this draft at wideout, but I am not sure who they are yet, so I will leave the draft prospects with just these two. Now we have to look at free agents. I will say this before I dive into that group... I am sure The Bears would sign and trade Alshon Jeffery. It's very uncommon for a team to trade a franchised player but it can happen. He is a true #1 and the Bears have shown a willingness to dump any big name players as they focus on accumulating draft picks and building their squad that way.  Since the Patriots don't have a 1st rounder this year anyway, I think they should sacrifice their #2 and maybe a #5 and get Brady a weapon like he hasn't had since Randy Moss. Edelman, Jeffery and Gronk would be unstoppable.

Anyways, enough with the fantasy scenario's, lets move on to who is ready and waiting to be signed to your fav teams offense.

Here are my top 5 free agent WR's who will most likely NOT re-sign with their 2015 team:
  1. Marvin Jones
  2. Rishard Mathews
  3. Kamar Aiken
  4. Travis Benjamin
  5. Jermaine Kearse

It was hard to even come up with 5 solid options considering Benjamin is at least 50/50 when it comes to resigning with Hue Jackson in Cleveland. I think this ranking is fair based on: 1) talent 2) age and 3) production. However, I think the one guy from this list that could become a true #1 WR is Kearse from Seattle. He has made some HUGE grabs during his time in the Pacific Northwest, but he comes from an offensive system that simply doesn't produce heavily targeted superstars at the WR position. But with the right QB I think he could emerge as a top target.

If 90% of the teams in this league need a top flight WR, and it's obvious that the supply is short... then we can say that the early bird will get the worm in the 2016 offseason. I think Belichick should make a rare big splash and trade for Jeffery before the start of free agency on Wednesday. With all of the #Deflategate nonsense being stirred up again, that would shake things up in the AFC! #FreeBrady

-Jay Wagner

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