The San Francisco 49ers were on the right track for a number of years. Going back to the hiring of Mike Singletary as Head Coach. Singletary helped cultivate a culture of accountability that resonated into the next coaching staff led by Jim Harbaugh. The roster was built through the draft expertly over multiple years during both Singletary and Harbaugh's reign. Harbaugh built an outstanding coaching staff and the team went on a 3 year run (11', 12', 13') finishing deep in the playoffs and even playing the Ravens in the Big Game. They didn't bring the Lombardi home, but this was an amazing young, talented and hungry team. WAS.
So what happened? The Niners' 2014 season was one of the weirdest I have ever watched an NFL team have. It was like watching a car wreck, you couldn't look away from the horror. The GM and Head Coach let their ego's get in the way and Harbaugh coached the entire season as a lame duck. By the time it was all over young high level players like Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Anthony Davis inexplicably retired and turned their backs on this franchise.
The GM kept his job and promoted a long time assistant coach to the top spot. He handed Jim Tomsula a roster that could only be described as almost completely devoid of talent. I'm not trying to be overly dramatic here. Looking at this list of players was stunning. It was mostly comprised of 3rd string quality talent. Tomsula put up a sub .500 record and he was fired. A coaching staff with Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells on it (collectively) couldn't have got that group to 8-8. I'm not sure what Trent Baalke expected.
Baalke was given another swing at hiring a Head Coach and he chose the worst possible candidate... Chip Kelly. I am not going to go any further into my analysis of the state of the 49er's today. I simply don't like Kelly, and the team has a major problem on their hands with their high profile QB. Their 2016 season is already doomed... I want to start the day after the regular season ended.
Let's rewind to January 4th, If I was Jed York the first thing I would have done is fire Baalke. He was a part of basically destroying a great young team. His ego got in the way and his coaching hires and roster moves were terrible. At this point no respectable HC candidate wants to work for Baalke.
We will be cleaning house with me as the owner. We need a new GM, Head Coach and coaching staff. We need a franchise QB, and also need to fill holes all over the offense and defense. Complete rebuild.
My #1 choice for GM would be Eric DeCosta. He's the assistant GM for the Ravens. He has made it clear that he loves the owner and HC in Baltimore and intends to be Ozzie Newsome's successor. The Ravens are compensating him well, and he's going nowhere. So, my close #2 choice is Duke Tobin form Cincinnati. The Bengals have had the best draft classes for 5 years running. They found a franchise QB, a true #1 elite WR, O-line, D-line, a fast dynamic LB group and some outstanding Running Backs. They have also had 3 coordinators move on to head coaching positions in the past 3 years.
Tobin has been involved with all of this and has learned how to build a team from the inside out. He can cherry pick some front office and scouting department personnel from the Bengals. He will also have a strong say in the HC and coaching staff. Another important thing to keep in mind is the team that has drafted so well, for multiple years, will start to hit the wall salary cap wise. We are seeing some VERY talented, young players hitting the free agent market out of Cincinnati. Very similar state of affairs in Carolina. They simply can't afford to keep everyone. Tobin knows what these guys are made of and can spent money with confidence.
With Tobin in place the next step is HC. Because you are going to be turning over a large portion of this roster it's an ideal situation to bring in a 1st time head coach. I do not like bringing in college coaches and throwing them directly into the top coaching spot in the pros. It works very rarely. I much prefer finding guys who know how the NFL works and how to deal with professional athletes.
Last year my number one candidate was Todd Bowles. He was obviously ready to take the next step. And his rookie year with the Jets was a resounding success no matter how you measure it. This year the guy who is the obvious stand out for me is Sean McDermott. I feel very confident that this leader has what it takes to create a culture of winning.
McDermott would almost definitely want to bring Eric Washington, the Panthers D-line coach with him as the new Defensive Coordinator. Washington is also ready to take the next step. As for offensive coordinator, it's important to think about what weapons are on the current roster and who may be available via free agency. Mobile QB's are obviously the new trend in the league. I need a guy who has worked with that type of offense. Pep Hamilton, a former 49er's QB coach and most recently offensive coordinator for Andrew Luck in Indy, is a guy who was scapegoated and fired after a strange, injury ridden 2015 season. He's an outstanding play caller and has a progressive modern approach.
To recap:
GM-Duke Tobin
HC- Sean McDermott
OC- Pep Hamilton
DC- Eric Washington
Now, to examine the roster. First things first, we need to address this Kaepernick catastrophe. He needs a change of scenery. I don't believe in him as a pocket passer and he is not a great leader. There are many ways to address this all important position. The scenario that I think could work is a straight up trade of Kaepernick for Ryan Tannehill in Miami. I know straight up trades are almost non-existent in this league, but last year we saw some blockbuster trades and I think this trend will increase.
Mike Tannenbaum in Miami is a true horse trader and he loves to make a splash. I think this could be a realistic trade. Tannehill is an amazingly athletically talented QB. He has never been used the right way. Pep would get this guy out of the pocket and could utilize some creative option style plays, taking advantage of Ryan's speed. The perfect guy to help this transition would be Panthers free agent Mike Tolbert. Hyde and Tolbert would be excellent in the backfield.
We have about 50 million in cap room right now, and we will need more to attract free agents to a team like this that is rebuilding. We are dumping Dorsey, Pears and Gabbert. That combined with sending Kap to south Florida will give us 15 million more dollars to spend. Tannehill brings an 11 million dollar number with him so we net 4 million, and every dollar counts. I see us with 55 million to spend when free agency starts in March which makes us 3rd most in the league.
The free agents I would target would be:
Mike Tolbert HB/FB- Former Panther, McDermott knows him well, he does it all.
Bilal Powell HB- Great 3rd down back, fits perfect with Tolbert and Hyde.
Marvin Jones WR- Former Bengal, Tobin knows him well. Great #2
Jermaine Kearse WR- Stealing a division opponents weapon.
Ladarius Green TE- GREAT value, dynamic threat downfield.
Jared Cook TE- Outstanding blocker and receiver. Stealing another division opponent.
Alex Boone G (re-sign)- No brainer. Keep him
Andre Smith RT- Former Bengal, Tobin knows him.
Sean Smith CB- True #1 CB, huge boost to secondary.
Adam "Pac Man" Jones CB- True #2 CB, Tobin knows him. Short term fix
George Iloka SS- 6'4" defensive back. Another Bengal.
Bruce Irvin LB- Best pass rusher on the market. Completes a great LB squad, former division opponent
Greg Hardy DE- McDermott and Washington had a lot of success with this guy in Carolina.
James Laurinaitis ILB- former division opponent, adds great depth.
My free agent philosophy obviously revolves around landing known commodities by targeting players that have a connection to the GM and HC. I also like bringing in guys who come from division opponents. You are absorbing the talent they couldn't afford to keep.
In this draft I think a QB is necessary with the #7 overall pick. Jared Goff would be way to valuable to let pass. In round #2 the team should target Nick Martin the Center from Notre Dame. His brother Zack Martin transitioned very easily to the pro's and I think he will as well.
So the roster is shaping up like this:
QB: Tannehill, Goff and Thompson.
RB: Hyde, Tolbert and Powell
WR: Smith, Jones, Kearse, Ellington
TE: Green, Cook, McDonald
O-line: Staley, Boone, Nick Martin, Andre Smith .. ect
LB: Irvin, Bowman, Lynch, Brooks, Harold ...ect
D-Line: Armstead, Carradine and Hardy
Safety: Bethea and Iloka
CB: Smith, Pac Man, Brock and Johnson
Obviously all of the fee agents are speculation. But the most concrete part of this whole roster building scenario I laid out is the QB's. The 49er's are taking Goff. If they also traded for a veteran like Tannehill they are very safe. You need at least 2 options in this league at this position. You have both starter and back-up covered. This gives Goff at least a year to learn from the bench and if Ryan gets injured you still have a chance to win with the rookie. It would inspire your fan base having two legitimate guys in place at QB. And if Tannehill takes off and becomes the winner that he is capable of, then Goff will have tremendous trade value in 2017 and 2018.
This GM, coaching staff and roster could easily win 8 or more games in their first year, and that's in a very talented/ competitive division. The veteran free agents will help the team win now and give Tobin time to build a long term winner via the draft.
I'd say "you're welcome 49er's", but we don't have a time machine to actually rewind to Jan. 4th. Baalke is still your GM and Kelly is your coach. I don't have a dog in this fight, and I would be very happy to be wrong about SF's impending disastrous 2016 season. But I don't think I am.
-Jay Wagner
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